The BJP’s defeat in Karnataka represents a resounding snub by the voters to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his use of the religious chant “Bajrang Bali ki jai” to polarise the electorate.

Modi had virtually staked his prestige on a BJP victory, holding 19 rallies and 6 road shows and camping in the southern state at a time Manipur was engulfed in riots.

He had in his campaign speeches attacked the Congress’s poll promise of banning outfits like the Bajrang Dal -- which the party accused of spreading hate --- by alleging it was an insult to Bajrang Bali (Hanuman).

“When you press the button in the polling booth, punish (the Congress) by saying, ‘Jai Bajrang Bail’,” Modi told his rallies.

Saturday’s results showed that an electorate angry at the price rise, joblessness and corruption had rejected Modi’s divisive slogans and refused to fall for his vaunted personal charisma.

The only face-saver for Modi and the BJP is that the party has managed to hold on to the vote share of around 36 per cent it had polled in the last election.

The Karnataka drubbing is a second straight setback for the “Modi model” of fighting Assembly elections by turning them into a referendum on the Prime Minister rather than the state government.

Himachal Pradesh had late last year spurned a similar charm offensive by the “world’s most popular leader”, as the BJP touted Modi to be.

As the scale of the Karnataka defeat became clear in the evening, Modi posted a tweet congratulating the Congress.

“Congratulations to the Congress Party for their victory in the Karnataka Assembly polls. My best wishes to them in fulfilling people’s aspirations,” he said.

Union home minister Amit Shah, who too had camped in Karnataka in the middle of the Manipur violence, posted a tweet, saying: “My sincere gratitude to the people of Karnataka for giving the BJP the opportunity to serve them for so many years.

“The BJP under the leadership of PM @narendramodi Ji will continue to strive for the welfare and development of the people of Karnataka.”

Shah did not congratulate the Congress. Instead, he sought to draw solace from the BJP’s “stupendous performance” on Saturday in municipal corporation elections in Yogi Adityanath’s Uttar Pradesh.

Shah claimed the civic poll results had put a “stamp on the public welfare works” of the Adityanath government under Modi’s guidance.

Modi thanked party workers in Karnataka: “I thank all those who have supported us…. I appreciate the hard work of BJP Karyakartas. We shall serve Karnataka with even more vigour in the times to come.”

Party managers conceded in private that it was the commitment of the BJP’s foot soldiers — apart from what they said was Modi’s “spirited campaign” — that had ensured the vote share didn’t fall.

“Given the scale of anti-incumbency, we could have suffered a more humiliating defeat. The hard work of the party’s committed workers ensured that our vote share remained intact,” a BJP Lok Sabha member from Karnataka said.

The BJP headquarters in New Delhi on Saturday PTI

Ambitions jolted

The defeat in Karnataka — the only southern state the BJP has ever ruled — comes as a jolt to the party’s plans to expand in the south and emerge as a truly national party, shedding its image as essentially a Hindi heartland party.

Party managers said they feared that the immediate impact of the Karnataka outcome would be felt in neighbouring Telangana, which goes to the polls at the end of this year and where the BJP had been hoping to gain a foothold.

“The Karnataka results could nullify our hard work and dash all our hopes in Telangana. We were hoping to win Karnataka and use the victory to build momentum for our Telangana campaign,” a BJP leader said.

He acknowledged that Telangana was the only southern state apart from Karnataka where the BJP could have hoped to do well.

Part managers fear that the Karnataka setback could also influence the results in three key northern states —Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh — which vote at the end of the year with Telangana.

While the BJP claims it’s confident about wresting Rajasthan from the Congress, ground reports from Madhya Pradesh — which the BJP has ruled for the best part of two decades — are discouraging. They highlight severe factionalism in the party and voter anger against the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government.

The BJP sees only a slender possibility of wresting Congress-ruled Chhattisgarh.

“After Karnataka, the chances of making a mark in Telangana are virtually gone. Then, if we lose in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, too, it can spoil the narrative for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls,” a party leader said.