The BJP leadership is said to be weighing options at a time demands have risen from within for a change of leadership in some pollbound states, spurred by the recent success of the Gujarat model of wholesale makeover.
A year ahead of the polls, the BJP in Gujarat replaced the chief minister and his entire team with a new set of leaders after reports of simmering anti-incumbency. The experiment proved to be a success as the poll results early this month saw the party win with a record-breaking margin.
BJP leaders from at least two states, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, have been citing the Gujarat case to press for change of leadership, insiders said. The strongest demand has come from Madhya Pradesh with leaders claiming that the party could lose the state due to raging anti-incumbency against the fourth-term government of chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan.
In Rajasthan, the BJP is in the Opposition and the demand is to have a new chief ministerial face, replacing former chief minister Vasundhara Raje Scindia. Both states go to polls at the end of next year.
The demands, however, have put the BJP’s central leadership in a bind amid fears that a Gujarat-style operation could be counterproductive in other states with reasonably influential regional faces. “The leadership is weighing its options. Each state has its own dynamics and one formula cannot be applied everywhere,” a BJP leader said.
Immediately after the Gujarat poll results, a party MLA from Madhya Pradesh had written to BJP president J.P. Nadda, seeking a similar overhaul in his state. After the MLA, many other leaders from Madhya Pradesh have reached out to the central leadership, stressing the need for “big changes” if the party wants to retain the key state, the insiders said.
BJP leaders in Delhi said they were aware of large-scale anger against the incumbent government in Madhya Pradesh, but the top leadership was unsure whether dropping chief minister Chouhan would solve the problem. The leaders said Prime Minister Narendra Modi continued to be the face in Gujarat in the absence of a powerful state leader, but that was not the case in other states.
“We don’t have a strong second-line leader in Madhya Pradesh. Replacing Shivrajji could intensify factionalism in the party and it could harm us more,” a BJP leader said.
This leader said the demand for change of leadership in Madhya Pradesh was coming mostly from coteries of specific leaders who were eyeing the chief minister’s post and were using the Gujarat case to put pressure on the leadership.
Apart from some key leaders in the state, Union civil aviation minister Jytoiraditya Scindia, who crossed over from the Congress, is being seen as a keen claimant of the chief minister’s post.
The party leaders said surveys were being conducted in the state to identify the issues and remedial measures and that changes would be made based on the findings.
“If the survey shows that people are angry with the chief minister, then a change could be made. So far our reports have it that the anger is mostly against some ministers and MLAs,” a BJP general secretary said.
In Rajasthan, where the BJP is confident of winning given the state’s tradition of alternating between the BJP and the Congress, there is a strong demand to project a new face in place of Vasundhara. This again is fraught with risks, party leaders said.
Vasundhara continues to be the tallest leader of the party in Rajasthan with no other leader to match her stature and so the leadership is unwilling to gamble despite appearing keen to have a new leader of their choice, the insiders said.
“There are fears that Vasundhara might revolt if we go for a new face. So the safe option could be to not project anyone,” a leader said, adding that this would open up the option of getting a new leader post-poll.
