From surveys to late-night strategy meetings to visits by ministers to focus areas, the BJP leadership has gone into overdrive to prepare for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls against the backdrop of unflattering projections.
Home minister Amit Shah, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s most trusted aide, has once again been put in the lead, acting as the de-facto party boss to craft the strategy.
The thrust is on identifying new areas and constituencies as the leadership fears loss of seats in traditional strongholds in the heartland states, according to BJP insiders.
The party has identified 144 Lok Sabha seats, spread across southern and eastern states, that it had lost in 2019, hoping to effect a turnaround in half of these in 2024. Union ministers have been told to visit these constituencies and pinpoint thrust areas to boost the prospects of winning.
“This will be to counter the possible loss of seats won in 2019. Such a strategy had paid off in 2019, when we won many new seats in Bengal,” a BJP leader said.
On Tuesday evening, Shah, along with party president J.P. Nadda and general secretary (organisation) B.L. Santosh met teams of ministers to take stock of their ground reports. Though the stocktaking got over in a couple of hours, Shah was closeted with Nadda and some others till late night. Party insiders said apart from poll strategy, the marathon meeting was to address organisational issues.
“Surveys are being regularly conducted in these 144 seats and also in other constituencies to gauge the voters’ mood and identify the issues to be addressed,” another party leader said, pointing out that at the meeting the surveys were closely analysed.
Tuesday’s meeting was not a one-off event and many such sessions, in which Shah’s presence is a must, have been held in the recent past, the BJP sources said.
Although party managers claim that such meetings are routine exercises for the “new BJP” focussed on strengthening the organisation and winning elections, sections in the party view them as a sign of concern spreading at the top.
“After Nitish Kumar broke off with us, there is a perceptible wariness among the leadership. Party officials are constantly being tasked with new responsibilities and asked to deliver results,” a BJP leader said.
The general understanding in the party is that fearing loss of a good number of seats in Bihar and Bengal, the leadership is desperate to identify greener pastures.
Sections in the party said the worry at the top was evident from the fact that the leadership was focusing on the general election two years away instead of concentrating their energies on upcoming Assembly polls in important states this year and in 2023.
“Survey reports from Himachal Pradesh have pointed to simmering anger against our government. In Gujarat, assessments have shown that the AAP is making deep inroads,” a BJP leader said, wondering why the leadership was more bothered about 2024.
Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat vote later this year and next year six key states — Karnataka, Tripura, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh — go to the polls.
For the current BJP leadership, winning Assembly polls has been a more difficult task than victory in Lok Sabha elections since in the latter Modi’s popularity overrides local problems. Many in the party are wondering if internal surveys have shown that it could be difficult to sail through in 2024, necessitating the sense of urgency.
The BJP insiders also hinted at organisational unrest as another reason for the leadership’s worry. The recent changes in the party’s top decision-making body — the parliamentary board — that saw senior minister Nitin Gadkari being dropped has led to discontent in the wider party organisation, the sources said.
“The current leadership seems to have got wind of the unrest and is gearing up to prepare in advance as many key leaders could be pushed to the margins around 2024,” a BJP leader said.
