India’s leading pollsters on Saturday averred that the NDA’s stated goal of crossing the 400-seat mark in the upcoming elections was a strategy to steer the narrative in its favour and demoralise the Opposition INDIA bloc.
Achieving the goal, they said, depended on where the BJP could grow and whether it could retain the seats it had won in 2019.
At the ABP Network’s Ideas of India Summit 3.0 here on Saturday, the pollsters said the BJP was likely to expand in Bengal and Odisha.
Sanjay Kumar of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies said: “The BJP can increase its seats in Bengal.... If there is an alliance between Trinamul and the Congress… then I think the BJP could face heavy losses.”
In 2019, the BJP won 18 of the 42 Bengal constituencies and the Trinamul 22. The Congress and the Left fought separately but had a pact on two seats — Malda South and Jadavpur. The Congress won two seats.
Yashwant Deshmukh of C-Voter explained: “West Bengal is going to be the mother of all battles…. Bengal is one state where there will be a close contest on every seat.”
Deshmukh said the target of 370 seats for the BJP and 400 for the NDA set by Prime Minister Narendra Modi was part of psychological warfare.
“Do you think this is a fight of equals? In the fight… it is not about how much a party wins but how they can demoralise their opponent. The BJP and Narendra Modi understand that the public is bored…. Now the debate has been steered to whether or not the party gets 370 seats,” he added.
However, Deshmukh said, 2024 will be different from 2004 when the BJP was last ousted from power as the Congress retained its base from the 1999 polls, getting more than four per cent of the vote share than the BJP but fewer seats.
In 2019, however, the difference in vote share between the two was almost 18 per cent.
“There are some 100 seats where the BJP will win, 200 where there is a contest with the Congress. The BJP won 95 per cent of these seats in 2019. In the remainder, it is the BJP versus regional parties. Can it wash them out?” Deshmukh said.
Pradeep Gupta of Axis MyIndia said the question was where the additional 46 seats for the NDA would come from, and whether they would be able to hold on to the 354 they won in 2019. “If the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK, a former BJP ally) aligns with the BJP, then the party has a chance in Tamil Nadu (where it currently has no seats)…. In Andhra, it would have to align with either the Telugu Desam Party or the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party… for which attempts are being made,” he said.
Gupta added: “The NDA is like a thali now with no side dishes. INDIA is like one without rotis.”
“The question of how much the BJP would win is like asking how much would Australia score against Afghanistan (in cricket)…. The BJP is in a very comfortable position but wants to win a big victory and hence its seat arithmetic. It is not because the BJP is not confident,” Kumar said.
“There is an MLA stock exchange now. This is a mockery of democracy,” columnist Sanjay Jha said, drawing applause. “In this 400-plus target, I don’t see confidence or arrogance. I see fear.”
The talk of defections and splits in Maharashtra drew some laughs from the crowd.
Deshmukh said: “I am not including Maharashtra because what can the hapless voter say here? She votes for one party, another forms the government. Who will that party align with tomorrow and the day after?... We ask the party and leader’s name because it isn’t enough now to ask the party’s name. There are two Shiv Senas, two NCPs, and an unknown number of (other) Congresses…. It depends on the contest on every seat.”
Gupta underlined that almost a tenth of Maharashtra’s MLAs were either Independents or from small parties. “Regional (and local) satraps control 30 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats here…. The difference in seats would be plus or minus five (for the BJP, which won 23 seats from Maharashtra in 2019).
Deshmukh cautioned that merely focusing on the overall vote share would not be enough to predict the outcome accurately.
