The ruling BJP in Haryana is hoping to benefit from the release of AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal on bail ahead of the Assembly elections in the state on October 5, expecting the Delhi chief minister’s party to split the votes and soften the effects of anti-incumbency.

The BJP is locked in a tough contest with principal challenger Congress, whose alliance talks with the AAP have not borne fruit as the AAP has gone ahead and announced candidates for all 90 seats.

Kejriwal’s release from jail means that now he can lead the party’s election campaign in Haryana, his home state. BJP managers believe that with Kejriwal in the lead, the AAP could corner a significant percentage of votes, ending up aiding the incumbent.

The BJP is eyeing a third term in power in Haryana but the task doesn’t appear easy. Signs that the situation was not favourable for the BJP became clear in the Lok Sabha polls with the Congress snatching 5 of the 10 seats in the state. The BJP had made a clean sweep in Haryana in 2019.

Kejriwal’s bail on Friday in the ₹100-crore excise policy scam was received with joy by the rank and file of the AAP, particularly by the party’s Haryana unit head Sushil Gupta. “We will now fight the polls with double energy. Kejriwalji will soon start his campaign in Haryana,” Gupta told PTI.

The enthusiasm of the AAP’s Haryana chief has privately spread a smile on the faces of BJP managers handling the elections. “Haryana is Kejriwal’s home state and the AAP has been trying to spread its wings here for a long time. We are hopeful that the AAP will secure a good number of anti-BJP votes,” a BJP MP from Haryana said.

The BJP’s hopes have been bolstered by what happened in the Gujarat Assembly polls in 2022, when the AAP had emerged as a significant player. The incumbent BJP scripted a record victory in Gujarat, aided largely by the AAP cornering a large chunk of the votes and ending up crippling principal Opposition Congress. The BJP had won 156 of the 182 seats and post-poll analysis showed that the ruling party had gained from the division of votes in at least 50 seats.

It became clear that the AAP is giving its best in Haryana when it fielded a candidate against wrestler and Congress nominee Vinesh Phogat in the high-profile Julana Assembly seat. The AAP has fielded a strong candidate — Kavita Dalal, India’s first female professional wrestler in the WWE. The BJP has put forward Yogesh Bairagi, the vice-president of the Haryana BJP youth wing. The fight here is set to be three-cornered.

In Haryana, the BJP’s expectations are hinged on the disunity in the Opposition ranks and the emerging scenario has instilled some optimism into the ruling party. Apart from the Congress and the AAP, there are other claimants to the anti-BJP votes, like the JJP led by former BJP ally Dushyant Chautala and the INLD-BSP alliance. The BJP snapped ties with the JJP in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls and it was part of a wider strategy to divide the Opposition votes.

“The way things stand, a four-way split in the Opposition votes looks very much possible. If it happens, we will surely retain Haryana,” a BJP general secretary said.