The BJP in Gujarat is grappling with reports of lower voting turnouts elsewhere in the country in the second phase of polling last Thursday in an election that has not drawn much interest across the western state.

Ahead of polling day on Tuesday, Gujarat seems to be in a been-there-done-that frame of mind. It is a fifth Narendra Modi re-run; thrice for chief minister and now the second for premiership.

“Maahaul bilkul thanda hai (the election is absolutely dull),” said a paanwala who goes by the name Panditji in Navrangpura, which falls under Ahmedabad West Lok Sabha constituency. A short distance away lies Naranpura, an Assembly segment which was represented by BJP president Amit Shah before he entered the Rajya Sabha. Shah’s return to electoral politics in the adjoining Gandhinagar Lok Sabha constituency has not exactly revved up the BJP.

A BJP old-timer found similarities in the mood now with that in 2004: “Vajpayeeji was Prime Minister, Advaniji was contesting from Gandhinagar. We had organised a meeting in Ahmedabad, and we couldn’t manage a big crowd and had to ask Atalji to wait for more people to gather.”

The Congress won 14 out of Gujarat’s 26 Lok Sabha seats in 2004, its best performance in two decades.

This time, too, crowds had to be “managed” for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rallies. This is borne out by what people in Surendranagar in Saurashtra, 120km west of Ahmedabad, had to say a day after Modi’s rally in this drought-struck cotton belt. “No one ran out of their shops and homes when his chopper landed. People had to be brought to the rally,” was a common refrain.

BJP insiders admitted to a general apathy within. “Partly it is because Lok Sabha polls do not enthuse as much as Assembly elections but it is also because there has been no power-sharing despite the BJP being in government here for 20 years — more if you take into account the municipal corporations,” said a BJP insider.

This does not mean the BJP is out of the reckoning. People on both sides of the bipolar politics of the state still expect the party to do better than the Congress. A repeat of 2014, when the BJP got 26/26, is, however, not expected. And though the ground has not shifted much since the 2017 Assembly elections when the BJP scraped through, neither does the Congress appear to be in a position to cash in.

The buzz is that the Congress had the edge on six seats and is in the running in another seven, essentially in rural areas. From zero in 2014, this is a gain for the Congress where candidates have been left to wage their own battles with no central coordination apart from the appointment of central observers.

This is in sharp contrast to the way the party fought the 2017 Assembly elections when Congress president Rahul Gandhi led from the front, almost like a Pradesh Congress Committee chief. His attention is divided this time. “This time it is candidate-based campaigning, not party based,” said the party’s Dasada MLA Naushad Solanki.

Also, in the Assembly polls, Jignesh Mevani, Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakor made enough noise to build a chorus in favour of the Congress. Alpesh has since left the Congress, Jignesh is seen to be too interested in building a national footprint, and Hardik diminished by formally joining the Congress as the Patidars have traditionally been with the BJP. Even in the Assembly polls, he was not able to transfer as many votes for the Congress. His joining the party appears to have further weakened him though he is a key campaigner with a helicopter at his disposal.

He got a taste of the disappointment among the Patidars over his crossover on Friday morning at a rally in Surendranagar where he was slapped by a youngster — apparently of a dissident group — mid-speech.

It is incidents such as these that are in discussion in an election that is driven more by social media — WhatsApp in particular — than traditional campaigning. Be it urban Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar or rural Surendranagar, banners, posters and flags of both parties are rare to come by; stripping the elections of colour. But, locals insist, Gujarat was never much into such election trappings.

Radio jingles and WhatsApp forwards dominate the campaign and even villagers who do not have smartphones are clued in. On Thursday, many villagers in Surendranagar were discussing how sitting MP and BJP candidate from Junagadh Rajesh Chudasama had to beat a hasty retreat from the Gir area the previous day in the face of local protests.

Though the Congress holds all but one Assembly segment in Surendranagar, uncertainty about a win in what should be a sure seat has crept in owing to rebel Lalji Mer, a BJP MLA who switched to the Congress in the hope of getting a ticket, and also the Congress candidate, former Lok Sabha MP Somabhai Gandalal Koli Patel.

At 78, some say he is 80, Somabhai Patel is seen as “aged” and uninspiring to the extent that Muslims who are supporting him for lack of choice wonder if he will get a comfortable margin in his native Viramgam to cover up deficits elsewhere. Congress SC/ST Cell chairman of Surendranagar, Kishorebhai Chavda, was vocal about his disappointment over Somabhai Patel not taking him and others into confidence. “He hasn’t called me even once,” Chavda told The Telegraph.

The constituency has 6 lakh Kolis, 1.75 lakh Dalits, 1.4 lakh Patidars and 1.2 lakh Muslims. Like the Patels, the Kolis are divided into sub-groups — Talpadas and Chuwaliyas. Somabhai is a Talpada Koli and BJP candidate Mahendra Munjpara is a Chuwaliya Koli. Lalji Mer is also a Koli.

This has queered the pitch for the Congress in an agrarian constituency where otherwise the party should have held the edge: the people are suffering from drought since last year and subsequent disappointment that the much talked about Pradhan Mantri Kisan Bima Yojana has delivered little or nothing despite them paying their premiums as scheduled for the rainy day.

Gujarat votes on April 23