The Bihar seat-sharing agreement finalised by BJP president Amit Shah on Sunday is being seen as an acknowledgment on the part of his party that the 2014 Narendra Modi magic may have dissipated, heightening the Big Brother’s dependence on allies, according to insiders.
Shah agreed that the BJP would be an equal partner to the JDU and the two parties would contest 17 Lok Sabha seats each. While this is being seen as a significant climbdown by the Big Brother, granting a Rajya Sabha berth to Ram Vilas Paswan in addition to six Lok Sabha seats to the Lok Janshakti Party led by him is being viewed as a “virtual surrender”.
“I can’t imagine Amitbhai has agreed to reward Paswan with a Rajya Sabha berth from the BJP’s quota. Has the BJP become so weak?” one BJP MP said. “This means the party is acknowledging Modiji’s popularity has come down and we need the help of allies.”
This leader from Bihar felt the party leadership shouldn’t have succumbed to pressure from Paswan and claimed that the deal had sent a wrong message to party workers.
Announcing the seat-sharing deal on Sunday, Shah had said Paswan would be the NDA candidate when the next vacancy arises for the Rajya Sabha. This means the BJP will use its own strength to assure the upper House berth for Paswan.
“The next vacancy will arise when former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s term expires in June next year. Now the BJP will use its strength in Assam to elect Paswan to the upper House. Isn’t this a surrender?” a second BJP leader asked.
By agreeing to contest just 17 of the 40 seats in Bihar, the BJP has given up five seats it had won in 2014. The BJP had contested 30 seats in the last election, when the JDU was not part of the alliance, and won 22.
“We have already lost five seats in just one state,” another BJP leader said. This leader felt that the BJP, which had secured 282 seats on its own in 2014, may not be able to reach the figure in 2019.
Finance minister Arun Jaitley is believed to have played a pivotal role in ironing out the Bihar seat-sharing deal. On Sunday, Paswan had said that one leader he would thank specially, since he was not present there, was Jaitley.
Sources said Shah was unwilling to agree to the Rajya Sabha berth for Paswan. Fearing that Paswan might quit the NDA and join the Opposition like another Bihar NDA ally Upendra Kushwaha, Jaitley took charge of the seat-sharing talks, prodded by JDU boss Nitish Kumar, sources said. Nitish shares an old rapport with Jaitley and is believed to have urged the finance minister to ensure Paswan remains in the NDA.
After having succumbed to the Bihar partners, the BJP now has the task of ensuring the Shiv Sena stays with it in 2019. The Sena has already declared its decision to go it alone in 2019 and has spent a major part of the past four years in slamming the Modi government and the BJP, despite sharing power.
BJP leaders now feel that the Sena too will demand a heavy price for staying with the BJP after the way the party succumbed before the Bihar allies. The BJP needs the Sena to take on the combined strength of the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP in Maharashtra. In the last polls, the BJP and the Sena as well as the Congress and the NCP had contested separately.
“The Modi wave helped us pick up enough seats in Maharashtra without the Sena. That may not repeat in 2019. We need the Sena since the Congress and the NCP are joining hands,” a BJP parliamentarian from Maharashtra said.
