The future of the INDIA bloc in Bengal seems to hinge on the possibility of a meeting between Sonia Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee when the chief minister visits Delhi next week, with Congress-Trinamul negotiations through all other channels having drawn a blank till now.

No meeting has been scheduled, and Mamata said at her Calcutta dharna — where she is protesting against the Centre on various issues — that the upcoming visit was “not related to political matters”.

But sources said Sonia and Mamata — who have shared a personal bond for decades and are in fairly regular touch over text messages — are likely to meet during the Trinamul chief’s February 5-6 Delhi visit.

“The possibility of an electoral truck between Trinamul and the Congress is almost zilch as of now.... Having said that, I must add that a meeting between the two can dramatically change the scenario,” a Trinamul MP said.

Mamata had been a Congress leader for decades till the formation of her breakaway party in 1998, and was the object of deep affection from Sonia and her husband, the late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi.

A Bengal Congress functionary known to be close to Mamata’s bete noire and state unit president Adhir Chowdhury warily admitted to the possibility of a Sonia-Mamata meeting.

“What if there is a meeting, and she (Mamata) comes out claiming that she was asked very nicely and has therefore changed her mind and will not distance herself from INDIA?” he said. “Everything will change overnight in that case.”

That none apart from Sonia can mitigate INDIA’s Trinamul crisis became clear again on Friday with Mamata showing no signs of warming up to the Congress. Instead, she attacked the party and Rahul Gandhi even after his most direct placatory message to her.

Mamata Banerjee and other Trinamul Congress leaders at the dharna site on Red Road on Friday. Picture by Pradip Sanyal

It emerged on Friday that during an interaction with social media activists aligned with his party in Bengal, Rahul had on Thursday said: “Ours is the INDIA alliance. Neither Mamataji nor we have broken the alliance.”

Rahul had added: “Mamataji too is saying that she is in the alliance, we too are saying we are in the alliance. Negotiation on seats is under way. It will be resolved.”

Rahul had spoken warmly about Mamata in public even last week. He has largely eschewed any criticism of her since entering Bengal despite the belligerent attacks on the Trinamul chief from the state Congress, choosing to mostly stay silent.

High command representative Jairam Ramesh, who is travelling with Rahul, has had the unenviable task of awkwardly defending Mamata — at least once a day — even lavishing praise on her amid the scathing attacks on the Congress from her and her party. Ramesh did so, amid visible discomfort, even on Friday.

Mamata ridiculed Rahul, without naming him, from her protest dharna dais on Friday.

“They have come to do a programme in Bengal but did not even inform me as an INDIA member. I got to know through administrative sources,” she said.

“They had called (Trinamul Rajya Sabha member) Derek (O’Brien) to request that the rally be allowed to pass through. Why come to Bengal then?”

The Congress has repeatedly said that Mamata was informed, invited and urged to join the Yatra, even if for a few minutes.

“If you have the courage, defeat the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, Varanasi (Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Lok Sabha seat), Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh,” Mamata added. “Where were you when Manipur was burning?”

Clearly alluding to Rahul and his Yatra, she said it was all about photo ops.

“Now, they are doing photo shoots at tea stalls. They don’t know how to play with kids. Or how to roll bidis. Maybe they consume things other than bidis,” she said. “They are like the cuckoo, activated by the spring of poll season.”

Rahul had unsuccessfully tried his hand at rolling bidis during a meeting with bidi-makers in Murshidabad on Thursday.

Iterating her decision to go it alone in Bengal, Mamata said her advice to the Congress to fight the BJP directly in 300 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats, leaving the rest for INDIA partners, had fallen on deaf ears.

“I don’t know if they will even win 40 seats if they contest 300,” she said. “I was offering two seats (in Bengal) and would have ensured they won. But they wanted more. I said, ‘Okay, contest in all 42 then!’ Rejected... there has been no conversation with them since.”

Trinamul insiders have said that before she hardened her stand, Mamata had been willing to go up to four seats if the Congress were to ask nicely.

The Congress fancies its chances in 9 to 10 Bengal seats and plans to ask the CPM, if there are seat negotiations with the Marxists, for 20.

The state Congress, elated with Mamata’s “misbehaviour” and the CPM’s increased proximity to the high command, plans to request the central leadership to immediately start seat talks with the comrades, sources said.

Still, Bengal unit leaders remain cautiously optimistic because of the speculation about a Mamata-Sonia meeting next week, besides the high command’s continuing softness towards Trinamul.

The CPM’s enthusiastic participation in the Nyay Yatra and the general vibes during its state committee members’ meeting with Rahul on Thursday clearly indicate the Marxists’ desire to make the most of this window of opportunity.

“Besides, there is Mamata’s public distancing from INDIA and Trinamul’s absence from the Yatra, in addition to administrative non-cooperation by her government here. These have brought Alimuddin Street and Bidhan Bhavan even closer,” a state Congress source said.

On Friday, CPM state secretary Md Salim once again welcomed Mamata’s decision to desert INDIA and reasserted his party’s lack of trust in her in any fight against the BJP.

The CPM’s keenness may have impressed the Congress but multiple sources in the state unit said they realised that an alliance with the Left was unlikely to yield major electoral gains.

Not just Trinamul but many in the Congress high command believe that the biggest hurdle to an understanding in Bengal is the militant resistance to Mamata from Adhir, backed by all-India general secretary and working committee member Deepa Das Munshi. The high command, sources said, is not thrilled with the duo’s stand.

“But these things don’t matter, because the state unit cannot move even a muscle without the high command’s clearance,” an Adhir aide said.

Mamata on Friday tore into the BJP for its “agency raj” and expressed solidarity with JMM leader Hemant Soren, arrested by the Enforcement Directorate after being cornered into stepping down as Jharkhand chief minister.

“I strongly condemn the unjust arrest of Shri Hemant Soren, a powerful tribal leader. The vindictive act by BJP-backed central agencies reeks of a planned conspiracy to undermine a popularly elected government,” she said in a statement on X.

“He is a close friend of mine, and I vow to stand unwaveringly by his side, dedicated to protecting democracy in these trying times. The resilient people of Jharkhand will deliver a resounding response and emerge victorious in this crucial battle!”