Political intrigue and betrayal have always been vital ingredients of Nitish Kumar’s politics, but what many have noticed in his currently unfolding turncoat act is the element of backroom conspiracy and manipulation by key aides.

Insiders, who had been talking about the Bihar chief minister not being his usual agile self these past few months, revealed that a coterie had methodically worked on him to influence his political thinking. While some have spoken of “three main culprits”, others have hinted at the involvement of a fourth too. Sources said all these people were “BJP-minded” and were unhappy with Nitish’s involvement in the Opposition INDIA grouping.

Leaders of the RJD and the Congress — key constituents of the Bihar Mahagathbandhan — are not taking the swirling speculation about a conspiracy lightly.

Even sections within the JDU have come to believe that Nitish, known for his sharp political acumen, has demonstrated uncharacteristic and inexplicable confusion and incoherence of manner in recent months.

They cite many instances, including his unseemly and extended references to sexual practices, his mocking of deputy chief minister Tejashwi Yadav as being one of the nine children of Rabri Devi and Lalu Prasad, and his outburst against former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi inside the Assembly.

A senior leader said: “Two ministers who never won elections and came through the MLC route and a retired bureaucrat who served in the chief minister’s office scripted the plot. They were actively supported by an old telephone attendant who was acting on their behalf.

"The fourth actor in the plot holds a high position in national politics, thanks to his intimacy with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This man held a long meeting with Nitish Kumar a few months ago, which laid the foundation for this turnaround.”

Corroborating this, a Mahagathbandhan source said: “They arranged meetings of a few JDU MLAs with the chief minister. These two ministers, who would be present at the meeting, ensured the MLAs told the chief minister the BJP had gained an upper hand in the state because of religious polarisation caused by the Ram temple inauguration and that the JDU would be wiped out if it remained in the INDIA camp. They would also make false allegations against the RJD to ensure the chief minister’s relations with Tejashwi got strained.”

They claimed this “coterie regulated the meetings of the chief minister and ensured he didn’t receive unbiased feedback on the state of the alliance or the mood on the ground”.

Only those who supported a pro-BJP narrative were allowed to meet the chief minister in recent weeks, they said. Similar messages were supplied to him in the name of intelligence inputs, they added. Independent JDU and RJD leaders were not allowed to meet Nitish.

Although Nitish has taken turns delivering shocks to the RJD and the BJP in the past through his opportunistic decisions, his fresh desire to embrace the BJP yet again has the potential to unsettle the Opposition’s political calculations ahead of the general election this summer.

Nitish was not only seen as the architect of the Opposition combine INDIA, he was even tipped to be the convener. The joint Opposition would have suffered a huge loss of face had he been appointed the convener at the last INDIA meeting.

What has left INDIA leaders bewildered is the Bihar chief minister’s abrupt decision to join those against whom he had been so consciously preparing to wage war. Nitish was a signatory to the resolutions passed by INDIA saying the Modi government was a threat to democracy and that the Opposition alliance was fighting to save India.

Nitish had also publicly declared he would prefer to die than go back to the BJP. What triggered his sudden change of heart is not yet known. Last month, at the national executive of the JDU in Delhi where Nitish took over presidency of the party, a severely critical resolution against the Modi government was passed.

Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge tried two or three times to talk to Nitish during the day but he was “busy” all the time. Congress communications chief Jairam Ramesh confirmed that there was a call back from the chief minister’s residence but Kharge was busy at that point and the two could not talk.

Kharge had on Friday appointed former Chhattisgarh chief minister Bhupesh Baghel as a special observer for Bihar to handle the emerging crisis.