With the BJP headed for a landslide back-to-back victory in the key political battleground state of Uttar Pradesh, the party looks perfectly poised to triumph in the 2024 elections and rule India till 2029.

The BJP also looks set for smashing victories in the smaller states of Uttarakhand and Manipur. In Goa it will probably form a government though there could be a huge amount of horse-trading before that happens.

"We are making history... the writing is on the wall, you cannot claim leadership by will, you have to claim leadership by performance," said BJP Minister of State Jitendra Singh.

RESULTS/LEADS

Uttar Pradesh (403)

BJP+: 274
SP+: 124
BSP:2
Cong: 1
OTHERS: 2

Punjab (117)

AAP: 92
Cong: 18
Akali Dal+: 4
BJP+: 2
OTHERS: 1

Uttarakhand (70)

BJP: 48
Cong: 18
BSP: 2
AAP: 0
OTHERS: 2

Goa (40)

BJP: 20
Cong+: 12
TMC+: 3
AAP+: 2
OTHERS: 3

Manipur (60)

BJP: 32
Cong+: 7
NPP: 6
JD (U): 5
OTHERS: 10

In the big upset news of the elections, early trends and results in Punjab show AAP massively ahead in 88 seats, crossing the majority mark, and set to pull off a victory. Congress is in second-place with 13 seats while the Shiromani Akali Dal is in third spot with 10.

AAP has shown that its dogged street-fighting skills can pay dividends and it gets its first state government and shows that it has the potential – still only potential for now – to become a national party.

Sanskriti Bachao Manch activists celebrate Bharatiya Janata Partys (BJP) lead in the UP Assembly elections, in Bhopal on Thursday. PTI

Most extraordinarily, Punjab showed its desire to throw all its established leaders out of office and even the legislature. Across parties, all the state’s established leaders were rejected, including former chief minister Amarinder Singh, who has lost in his family seat Patiala, and the SAD’s Prakash Singh Badal and Sukhbir Singh Badal who are trailing in their own constituencies.

Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi, who it was thought would bring in the Dalit vote, was trailing in both the constituencies where he stood. And Navjyot Singh Sidhu, who the Congress inducted into the party only months before the election in the hope that he had vote-winning abilities, was trailing even in his own constituency.

AAP workers have already started celebrating the party’s breakthrough in Punjab which could be big assist to party leader Arvind Kejriwal’s hopes of taking the movement national.

The BJP has won/is ahead in 269 seats in Uttar Pradesh’s 403-member assembly. The Samajwadi Party under Akilesh Yadav is ahead in 122 seats, the Mayawati’s BSP, which formed the government in UP four times, has been pushed to the sidelines, leading in just 5 seats, Congress is leading in just three seats. This will make Yogi Adityanath the state’s first chief minister to return to power for a second straight term. Adityanath is leading in his Gorakhpur while Akhilesh Yadav has taken a huge lead in Karhal. The only consolation for Akhilesh is that he looks certain to improve on the 47 seats the party has in the current assembly.

Adityanath’s win comes despite unemployment, inflation, shambolic pandemic management and the protest by farmers against the government’s now-repealed farm laws. The UP chief minister countered this during the campaign by pledging free electricity to all households, pensions for poor women and interest-free loans. Akhilesh grew huge crowds at his rallies but was unable to translate those turnouts into votes. Analysts say that the women’s vote appears to have contributed to the BJP’s victory in the state, thanks to free ration distribution during pandemic and perception of better law and order. “The BJP has done well in four out of five states… it is a historic day,” BJP spokesman Amit Malviya said.

Even in states like Goa and Uttarakhand where the people appeared to have a desire for change, however, the BJP looks set to return to power. In Uttarakhand, it was thought that the BJP which changed three chief ministers in as many years was on a weak wicket. But it appeared to be out in front at 1pm with wins/leads in 42 seats compared to the Congress trailing far behind at 25. Power has swung between the Congress and the BJP since it was founded in 2000. The BJP won a massive majority in 2017 winning 57 out of the assembly’s 70 seats.

Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) supporters celebrate their party's lead during the counting day of Punjab Assembly elections, in Jalandhar district on Thursday PTI

Similarly, in Goa, where there had appeared to be deep discontent with the government, at 1pm the BJP was leading in 18 seats compared to the Congress leading in 12. However, the TMC and the AAP are also defying the analysts who felt they didn’t have a chance and leading in 4 seats and 2 respectively. The key to forming the government could lie with the four seats where regional parties are in the lead. What’s certain is that immense horse-trading must have already have begun.

The big takeaway from the elections has been the collapse of the Congress party not only in Punjab but in the other states that went to the polls. It is a particularly disappointing day for Priyanka Gandhi who put in a lot of hard work in Uttar Pradesh.

“It is a bad day for Congress,” said Congress spokesman Surdeep Sappal, declining to comment on whether the ousting of Amarinder Singh may have contributed to the party’s defeat in Punjab.

“The AAP was a tsunami waiting to hit Punjab. The larger political message is that Congress will be relegated to the margins while AAP and TMC will play a much bigger role (on the national stage),” said former Congress minister Ashwani Kumar who recently quit the party. AAP has a big challenge ahead as it seeks to deal with rising unemployment in the state and the drug menace amongst younger people.

The election results are broadly in line with the exit poll predictions. The BJP landslide in the bellwether state of Uttar Pradesh, which has more than 200 million people, is a clear boost for Modi before the next general election in two years. Jubilant BJP workers in Lucknow started playing holi at the party’s offices.

Opinion polls conducted before voting had mainly forecast a BJP return to power in UP led by Yogi Adityananth, who’s mentioned as a possible successor to Modi.

“People have rejected dynastic politics and voted for development. We never thought that the BSP will do so poorly. Samajwadi Party had also fought cleverly,” UP BJP chief Swatantra Dev told the media.