The Congress seems to be on a comeback trail in Telangana, where the November 30 Assembly elections will pit the party against the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi led by chief minister K. Chandrashekar Rao.

The BJP and a few other parties, such as the AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi, can impact the results in a close finish.

As campaigning for the Assembly’s 119 seats intensified last month, the state witnessed the first incident of poll violence on October 30. Medak MP Kotha Prabhakar Reddy, the BRS candidate for the Dubbak Assembly seat, was stabbed by a lone attacker while campaigning.

KCR (as the chief minister is widely known) blamed the Congress for the attack, providing a hint of the possible poll dynamics.

Political observers from Hyderabad told The Telegraph that the election would be a straight contest between the BRS and a resurgent Congress.

Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra appears to have injected new energy into the party in the state and given it a wider public interface.

KCR, though, continues to enjoy his high standing for leading the movement that clinched statehood for Telangana in 2014. His party holds 101 of the 119 seats in the Assembly.

The BJP has tied up with the OBC-based Jana Sena Party, led by actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan, to which it has given eight seats.

The other key player, particularly in Hyderabad and its neighbourhood, is the AIMIM. The party, which won seven of the eight Assembly segments in the old city of Hyderabad in 2018, is looking to contest more seats this time.

Owaisi has reportedly told party supporters to back BRS candidates where the AIMIM is not in the fray, prompting the Congress to allege a “deal” between the BJP, BRS and the AIMIM ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Welfare war

At the core of the contest lie two welfare packages: one that has helped the BRS stay in power for the past nine years, and the other a template of guarantees that gave the Congress a resounding win in Karnataka this year and is being replicated with a few changes in other states.

The Congress’s guarantees include free travel for women on government buses; a Rs 2,500 monthly cash assistance for women heads of families; subsidised LPG cylinders; a Rythu Bharosa scheme that gives farmers and tenant farmers Rs 15,000 a year and agricultural workers Rs 12,000 annually; 200 units of free electricity to all households; the Indiramma Indlu scheme that provides the homeless with land and Rs 5 lakh each to build a house; cash aid for students; and a monthly pension for elders under a scheme named after Rajiv Gandhi.

This has prompted KCR to enhance his government’s already substantial welfare schemes. For instance, under the Rythu Bandhu scheme for farmers, which includes 24x7 free power for farm pump sets and large lift irrigation projects, the BRS has in its manifesto increased the annual payout to Rs 16,000 — Rs 1,000 more than the Congress is offering farmers.

Apart from a pension scheme for the elderly, including women and widows, the BRS also runs a Telangana Dalit Bandhu scheme for the economic empowerment of the Scheduled Castes, under which each eligible household receives a grant of Rs 10 lakh to start a small business.

KCR’s son K.T. Rama Rao, a minister who holds key portfolios such as urban development, industry and commerce, has been advertising Hyderabad as a “technology hub” for IT, fin-tech, the life sciences and the digital sector, sources said.

Rama Rao has been reeling off statistics on Telangana’s overall growth rate, fiscal health and the benefits accruing from the “Telangana Inclusive Development Model”.

‘Anti-incumbency’

“Yes, KCR is mainly banking on this inclusive development model,” said M. Kothandram, veteran leader of the Telangana Jana Samiti (TJS) who taught political science at Osmania University and played a key role in the Telangana statehood struggle.

“But KCR faces strong anti-incumbency,” Kothandram, who has decided to support the Congress this Assembly election, told this newspaper from Hyderabad.

Although the BRS is trying to enlist leaders from influential communities to bolster its image — the latest being former minister Janardhan Reddy who quit the Congress to join the ruling party — the mood appears pro-Congress at the grassroots.

The price rise, unemployment among the youth, and alleged irregularities in some government recruitment exams have caused deep popular resentment, Kothandram said.

“It looks like the Congress will form the government this time. We are supporting the Congress,” Kothandram said. “We have given a set of issues to be addressed and the Congress has agreed.”

The BJP, whose campaign is dominated by national-level leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah, “continues to be only a marginal player in Telangana”, Kothandram said.

Shah told a rally at Suryapet in Hyderabad that if voted to power, the BJP would appoint a backward class leader as chief minister.

Shah’s offer is not cutting much ice, a political analyst in Hyderabad who didn’t wish to be quoted said. He cited how the BJP had recently replaced its Karimnagar MP Bandi Sanjay Kumar, a backward caste leader, as state unit chief with Union minister Kishen Reddy.

Kishen Reddy seems already to have queered the pitch by declaring that the 4 per cent reservation provided to the Muslim community in education and jobs would be scrapped if the BJP is voted to power, the analyst said.

The BJP’s main plank appears to be the “corruption and dynastic politics” of both the BRS and the Congress.

At a rally in Telangana, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge accused KCR of pushing the state into a “debt trap” and “betraying” the trust of Sonia Gandhi, without whose support, he said, Telangana would not have attained statehood under the UPA government.

KCR hit back in a series of public meetings, accusing the Congress of “neglecting for long years” the Telangana region’s needs and asserted that the statehood was the result of a “continued fight put up by the people of Telangana” led by him.

Left, minorities

However, leaders of the two main Left parties, the CPI and the CPM, feel there are more serious issues to deal with than the battle to claim credit for Telangana’s statehood.

K. Narayana, a veteran CPI leader, told this newspaper that the fight is “between the BRS and the Congress, and the Congress is picking up steam although these are early days”.

While the CPM, part of the INDIA Opposition bloc, will fight alone in Telangana after seat talks with the Congress broke down, the CPI will stick with the Congress despite being given just one seat.

Narayana said it was mainly the “big farmers” who benefited from the BRS government’s 24-hour free power supply and welfare package for the farm sector, a view shared by Kothandram.

Therefore, Narayana said, the “anti-establishment mood is strong” and is being buttressed by charges of corruption in the administration.

He said the minorities, Reddys and the backward castes “are consolidating with the Congress this time”.

“Government employees, teachers, the middle class and, particularly, the students and the youth are angry with the KCR government,” said Tammineni Veerabhadram, secretary of the CPM’s Telangana state committee.

The minorities have traditionally backed the BRS and the AIMIM but this time “some change is there”, Veerabhadram said, particularly because of speculation that the BRS might tie up with the BJP after the polls.

Star candidates

While KCR is contesting from two seats, Gajwal and Kamareddy — he will be
up against state Congress chief Revanth Reddy in the latter seat — his son Rama Rao is contesting from Sircilla.

The star candidates on the Congress list include veteran K. Rajagopal Reddy who recently returned to the party (Munugode), and former cricketer Mohammed Azharuddin (Jubilee Hills, Hyderabad).

At least three MPs, including Bandi Sanjay Kumar (Karimnagar), figure on the BJP’s list of 52 announced so far.

The current party-wise numbers in the Assembly: BRS 101 (including 12 Congress defectors), AIMIM 7, Congress 5, BJP 3, Forward Bloc 1 and Nominated 1. One seat is vacant.