The Congress, which appears to have gained an edge over the BJP in this fiercely contested Madhya Pradesh election, will have to hold on to some of the ground it had snatched last time from its rival in its stronghold of Malwa-Nimar.

What has come as a boon for the Congress is the normalcy of the electoral discourse outside Indore, where the democratic process functions under abnormal temperatures and pressures created by factors such as religion, money power and nationalist passions.

In other parts of Malwa-Nimar, the discourse is dominated by issues like the agrarian crisis, exodus for livelihood, healthcare and education, and the corruption affecting even basic infrastructure development.

Expressions like “mehngai (price rise)”, “unfulfilled promises” and “janata pareshan hai (the people are suffering)” are heard more often than “videsh mein danka baj raha hai (India’s global stature is rising)” and “Hindutva”.

Step into the tribal and rural areas and you find people more concerned about drinking water, the unavailability of doctors, the prices of diesel and urea, the lack of jobs and the broken-down roads.

People are more eager to hear about farm loan waivers and more concerned about the price of a cooking gas cylinder than the inauguration of the Ram temple.

And that normal discourse creates space for the Congress, placing it in a comfortable position even in a region that the RSS had nursed for decades, turning it into a fortress for the BJP.

Of the 66 seats in this region, the BJP won 41 in 2008 and 56 in 2013, ensuring the continuance of the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government. In 2018, the Congress won 35 seats, whittling the BJP down to a mere 28 and evicting it from power.

With the defection by Jyotiraditrya Scindia upending the voters’ mandate and reinstalling the Shivraj government, the people’s thirst for change remained unsatisfied.

The anti-incumbency monster is now dancing in the streets, screaming about the lack of basic amenities, false promises and, above all, the savagely rising prices of essentials.

The majority of the villagers dismiss Narendra Modi as “jhootha” and “Mama” Shivraj as corrupt. Their yearning for change seems to have acquired a virulence against the Shivraj government.

While people angrily point to the glut of recruitment scams, sand mining and countless unfulfilled promises to attack Shivraj, the dismay with Modi is no less tangible.

Farmers complain about the rising input costs rendering the yearly cash assistance of Rs 6,000 meaningless, and wonder what happened to Modi’s promise of doubling their income by 2022.

The BJP may have dubious arguments to defend Modi on the doubling-of-income promise and the media may have forgotten all about it, but it remains embedded in the farmer’s heart. And it hurts.

Apart from Indore, the Malwa-Nimar region is made up of Ujjain, Ratlam, Mandsaur, Neemuch, Dhar, Jhabua, Alirajpur, Badwani, Khargone, Burhanpur, Khandwa, Dewas, Shajapur and Agar.

Of the 66 seats, 22 are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes. Mandsaur, where the BJP won all the seats in 2018 despite the infamous police firing on agitating farmers, is showing extreme unease this time.

The ugly incident of a BJP leader urinating on a poor tribal a few months ago seems to have affected the sentiment of the entire community.

The BJP has fielded its tallest tribal leader and Mandla MP Faggan Singh Kulaste, a Union minister, in the Assembly election to signal that he is a probable candidate for chief minister.

This may have been aimed at assuaging the hurt tribal feelings, but Kulaste belongs to another region of the state, Mahakaushal, while the Congress has prominent leaders like Kantilal Bhuria from the Malwa region itself.

Rahul Gandhi led the Bharat Jodo Yatra through the Malwa-Nimar region, drawing a massive popular response. Political observers saw that as a sign of discontent against the Shivraj government.

While the BJP faces a fatigue factor after 18 years in power, what has really hurt the party’s prospects is the bread-and-butter questions.

“How can a leader having an iota of shame promise a gas cylinder for Rs 450 after selling it for Rs 1,100 for years? Modi is shameless,” a farmer said in Dewas.

The other issues being talked about include crimes against women, a badly framed crop insurance scheme, poor healthcare facilities and poor civic infrastructure.

“Progress is reserved for BJP leaders. Those who didn’t have a motorcycle are now roaming around in a Scorpio,” a young man said in Burhanpur.

“They threaten people, encroach on land and enjoy immunity from the law. We support the BJP but the Shivraj government has to be taught a lesson. In the parliamentary elections, we will again support Modi.”

The BJP’s decision to field so many Union ministers and MPs in this election has also created confusion about Shivraj’s future. Although he is grappling with dissatisfaction at multiple levels, he remains the only leader of the BJP acceptable throughout the state. But for his Ladli Behna scheme, the BJP would have been knocked out of the frame by now.

But the party’s carefully crafted strategy of sidelining him and spreading rumours about the possibility of anybody becoming chief minister has left the BJP rudderless.

Even Congress leaders express surprise that the administration and the police are not troubling them as much as they do in any other BJP-ruled state.

“Shivraj ne dheela chhod diya (Shivraj has loosened his grip),” is the refrain among Congress workers in almost every district.