Maharashtra’s new Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar is said to have been heard muttering only a few days ago that the state had never been ruled by an incompetent Chief Minister like Eknath Shinde. Now, he’s one of two deputy chief ministers serving under the man he very recently called totally useless.
But this situation may not last long. By August Ajit Pawar and Shinde could be swapping roles: Ajit, the latest defector in a state where defection has become like changing your clothes, will have his long-nurtured dream come true and get the top job. Shinde is likely to slide down one slot and emerge as the state’s deputy chief minister. He’s been looking particularly grumpy ever since Ajit and his NCP team joined the government. Will he rebel at this demotion and walk away from the perquisites of power? Almost certainly, no. The fact is that Shinde was always aware of his own limitations and was surprised to find himself thrust into the chief minister’s throne.
Did someone ask what about deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis who has also been looking out of sorts ever since he was denied the chance to clamber back into the chief minister’s chair? The BJP high command has already made it clear that it doesn’t want him back as the state’s chief minister. So, that means he will very soon be getting a one–way ticket to New Delhi and a berth in the Union cabinet. How senior a post will he land? That depends on whether he’s in favour with his top bosses in Delhi and whether they think he’s capable of stirring the state’s delicately poised political balance. What’s certain is that he won’t be returning to Maharashtra politics in the near future,
Will that be the last move on the Maharashtra political chessboard? Not quite. It looks like there are already moves underway to split the Congress. But if there aren’t enough defectors to avoid the anti-defection act this move could be postponed till closer to next year’s general elections.
The question political observers are asking is what could be the endgame to all these political manoeuvres. The answer is that the BJP’s bosses have their eye on the main prize: the 2024 general election. Maharashtra, with 48 seats, is now the second-biggest state in the Union. Keeping the 2024 elections in mind, the BJP’s strategists are determined to fragment the Opposition so they are unable to put up an effective electoral fight against it. It’s entirely possible this strategy could come up trumps for the BJP. And Maharashtra could well determine the results of the 2024 election.
Inevitably, these political upheavals are leaving a lot of angry state legislators in their wake. There are currently 14 vacancies in the state cabinet (Maharashtra can have a maximum of 43 ministers and there are currently 29). Shinde’s followers had been hoping to get about half of these vacancies but now some will go to Ajit Pawar’s team. Some enraged Shinde followers have been suggesting that their own ministers should step aside to give others a chance. Their unembarrassed argument is: “they’ve had one year to make money. Now we want a chance to get our share.” The divisions on this are so bitter that at a meeting of Shinde’s group one current minister and another aspiring one were actually involved in a physical scuffle. Shinde, who was in Nagpur accompanying President Draupadi Murmu, had to drop his scheduled programme and rush back to Mumbai.
Under such circumstances, can the Shinde group hold together? The BJP smugly points out that, together with Ajit Pawar’s group, it will have enough seats even if Shinde’s followers do stomp out of government in a huge huff.
For now the fact is also that nobody is quite sure how many MLAs are with Ajit Pawar. The accepted number is that 29 out of the NCP’s total of 53 are definitely with him – for now. And 17 attended the meeting held by Sharad Pawar on Wednesday. But several of these MLAs were at meetings held by both Sharad and Ajit. Despite all that, it appears reasonably certain that Ajit has almost 40 of the MLAs whose signatures he has claimed. Remember that under the anti-defection law he needs two-thirds of the party’s MLAs to be with him to avoid being disqualified from the assembly. That means he needs 36 MLAs with him.
What about Shinde himself? His body language has communicated his unhappiness since Sunday. But political observers in the state say he wouldn’t be totally put out if Ajit Pawar was made the chief minister and he was pushed down to deputy. Says a political observer: “Shinde never dreamt or aspired to be chief minister. He will be quite happy to work as deputy CM.”
There is one person in Maharashtra politics who is utterly unruffled by the political war that has broken out. No prizes for guessing it’s Sharad Pawar, the grand old man of the state’s political world who has seen it all more than once. Says one political observer: “He has broken more than one government and had his governments broken.” Sharad, who is 83, began a quick tour around the state at 8am on Tuesday.
One subplot in the Maharashtra political whirl is the moves being made between different sets of cousins. In several parts of Mumbai posters have come up demanding that cousins Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray should bury their differences and come together at a time when they are both in mortal political danger. Then, there are cousins Dhananjay Munde and Pankaja Munde who have been daggers drawn for quite some time. Dhananjay is said to be keen on improving relations. Finally, of course, there are cousins Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule. Ajit has always felt Supriya was favoured to his detriment. On Wednesday, he launched an unexpected broadside against his uncle Sharad.
What impact will the new triple alliance have on state politics? The government has not made itself wildly popular in the last year. Adding Ajit Pawar to the mix seems unlikely to add to its acceptability to the public. There’s a possibility that the BJP’s masterminds are making a colossal error. They are furiously accumulating legislators and splitting parties to ensure they can stay in political power. But will the workers and the voters of all these parties follow their own MLAs? Or, will their loyalties stay with leaders like Uddhav Thackeray and also Sharad Pawar. If that situation plays out the BJP’s machiavellian machinations could fall apart and be revealed to be over-clever.
More than 50 years ago Haryana politician Gaya Lal made headlines when he left the Congress Party and returned to it a few hours later. His quick flit back and forth gave rise to the expression Aaya Ram, Gaya Ram – and he probably didn’t even financially profit from these super-quick shifts of loyalty. Today Aaya Ram Gaya Ram seems to belong to a gentler, almost more innocent age. Maharashtra’s politicians appear to be on a constant merry-go-round – and money’s fluttering in the air all around.
