New Delhi: India will “most likely” receive above-normal rainfall during July, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday, in an updated forecast that also noted an 11 per cent rainfall deficit during June.

The IMD said monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during July would most likely be greater than 106 per cent of the long-period average for the month. Most parts of the country are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, it said.

But many parts of northeastern India and some parts of the northwest, east and southeast peninsular region may experience below-normal rainfall, the agency said in its forecast of rainfall and temperature in July.

The all-India rainfall during June was 147.2mm against a long-period average normal of 165.3mm, an 11 per cent deficit and the seventh lowest June rainfall since 2001, the IMD said.

Rainfall activity during June had been subdued for many days, particularly between June 10 and June 18, and rainfall activity improved after June 19, IMD director-general Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra said.

The formation of a low-pressure system on June 28 over the Bay of Bengal also helped enhance the monsoon flow leading to increased rainfall activity over most parts of the country, he said.

Weather data since 1950 shows that in 20 of the 25 years when June rainfall was below normal (less than 92 per cent of the average), the July rainfall was either normal (94 per cent to 106 per cent) or above normal.

Crop weather scientists have long underscored that the distribution of rainfall over land and time is more important to agriculture than the quantum of rainfall for India as a whole during the four-month monsoon season.

During July, the monthly maximum temperatures are likely to be normal to below normal over many parts of northwest India and south peninsular India. Above normal maximum temperatures are likely over many parts of central India, east and northeast India and along the west coast, the IMD said.