More than 1.35 billion Covid-19 vaccine doses will be available for the public by the end of the year, the government has told the Supreme Court. The pledge comes after the government surprised critics of its sluggish vaccine rollout by administering a record 34 million doses in six days.

Until recently, severe shortages of vaccines had been reported around the country. The government’s success in meeting its commitment to the Supreme Court, though, will hinge on at least two domestic vaccines that are still under development clearing key Phase 3 clinical trials. So far, India has vaccinated just over 4 per cent of the population. Experts have warned that unless the government sharply accelerates its vaccination programme, the country may be swamped by a devastating third wave.

In its court affidavit, Bar and Bench reported that the government said that the Serum Institute of India would produce 500 million doses of Covishield, India’s version of the AstraZeneca Covid vaccine, between July and December and that 400 million doses of Covaxin would also be available on the market during the same time.

The Serum Institute has said it will hike Covishield vaccine production from 65 million doses in June and July to 100 million in August and September.

Bharat Biotech currently produces 20 million doses of the indigenously developed Covaxin monthly and has said it expects to produce 35 million doses in July. After that, the figures submitted to the Supreme Court suggest the company expects to hike its Covaxin production steeply to 78.2 million in August and September.

Besides Bharat Biotech, several other companies are expected to launch production of Covaxin which was developed by the Indian Council of Medical Research. Bharat Biotech has also said it will activate plants in Hyderabad and Bangalore to produce Covaxin.

Saturday’s promise of 1.35 billion doses by year-end is lower than the more than 2 billion doses of coronavirus vaccines which top government advisor V.K. Paul told reporters last month would likely be available between August and December. At that time, Paul said the doses would include 750 million of the Covishield vaccine produced by the Serum Institute, as well as 550 million doses of Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin.

Around 100 million doses of the Russian-made Sputnik V are also expected to be available for distribution to the public between July and December, the government said in its 375-page affidavit submitted to the court.

The government told the court it would be receiving 300 million doses of a vaccine from the Indian company Biological E and 50 million doses of Zycov-D vaccine from Zydus Cadila.
The Biological E vaccine is undergoing phase three trials and is expected to be on the market by August. The government is paying a Rs 1,500 crore advance to the manufacturer for the vaccine.

The Phase 3 data of Zycov-D has been undergoing analysis. The company is expected to apply for emergency use permission next week. Zycov-D is a three-dose DNA-based vaccine.

The government told the court in its affidavit that 1.86 billion vaccine doses will be needed to vaccinate around 940 million Indians above the age of 18.

The government last Monday vaccinated more than 8 million people. Most observers at the time said the government would not have enough vaccines to keep up its scorching pace. While the number of doses has fallen, it is still administering five to six million doses a day, far more than the 3 million it was administering for most of the past month.

The government had declared in early June that it would deliver 120 million vaccinations during the month. That was up from the 79.4 million doses that were available for the National Covid Vaccination Programme in May. The extra vaccines appear to have become available thanks to 15.7 million doses of vaccines leftover with the states on June 1 when the government resumed control of the vaccination programme combined with a rise in production to about 90 million.

Also, 10 million Sputnik V vaccines from Russia have become available though it’s unclear how many have actually been administered to the public.

Some leading hospitals in Delhi have just started giving Sputnik V jabs while others say they are about to start administering. The Centre has fixed a price of Rs 1,145 for the vaccines which are currently being imported from Russia. Some of the Sputnik V doses have been imported in a fully finished form and others are being put into vials here. Dr Reddy’s Laboratories is expecting to start production of Sputnik V in India at the beginning of August. Russia has deals with six Indian companies to produce 850 million doses of Sputnik V.

The government will need to deliver around 9 million doses daily to vaccinate all adult Indians by end-December, according to experts. China is currently vaccinating about 100 million people a week. In vaccinating the population, the government is not only dealing with supply issues, it must overcome vaccine hesitancy, especially in rural areas, along with logistical problems in reaching remote areas of the countryside.

India recorded 48,698 new Covid-19 cases and 1,183 deaths Saturday. It was the lowest daily number of fresh cases since March 24.