Tuesday, 24 December 2024
Tuesday, 24 December 2024
Before anything else, let’s make one thing very clear: Trump Mark II will be nothing like Trump Mark I.
The first time around, Donald J. Trump was the New Boy in Washington, unversed in the labyrinthine ways of the US capital. This time, however, he has a much sharper understanding of the immense powers of government – powers no New York-based construction magnate could ever match. Trump has learned to navigate the city’s tough corridors and get what he wants. “They know how to use the levers of government in a way they didn’t in 2016,” says one immigration expert.
Trump Mark I attracted a more moderate cadre of Washington insiders, military leaders, and even top-notch executives like former Exxon chief Rex Tillerson, who briefly served as secretary of state and they reined in his most excessive impulses. Trump’s former chief of staff Gen. John Kelly openly tells people that Trump was difficult and impossible to work with.
This time, expect the foot soldiers of the far-right to take charge.
Men like Stephen Miller, who kept a low profile but remained a staunch ally throughout Trump Mark I, are poised to lead.
One of Miller’s primary objectives is to enforce a string of ultra-hardline deportation laws. He has promised “to achieve a 100 per cent perfect deportation rate at the border” and complete Trump’s costly and controversial border wall. More seriously, Miller and his allies plan to “carry out the largest domestic deportation operation in US history”.
The US has an estimated 11-to-12 million undocumented immigrants, two-thirds of whom have been in the country for more than a decade. Trump's running-mate, J. D. Vance, has said it would be “realistic” for the government to carry out one million deportations a month.
But this won’t only be a government led by extreme right-wingers with unwavering faith in their ideologies. Multibillionaires like Elon Musk, Peter Thiel (who made his fortune with PayPal), and Marc Andreessen will also be overseeing from above, eager to see minimal regulations on cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence development. They’re looking to immediately rake in more billions than ever before via cryptocurrency, possibly undermining national currencies in the process. Notably, Vance, whose wife Usha is of Indian descent, worked for Thiel until recently, and many say Vance’s close ties to Thiel were key to Trump making him his running-mate.
Musk will also be waiting with a sledgehammer for the chance to put his most radical ideas to work on how government should function. He’d like to smash many arms of government to smithereens. Just how much time and energy he will have to put his ideas into practice remains to be seen.
Certainly, he played a prominent part in Trump’s re-election by both taking part in rallies and constantly sending out support messages on X (formerly Twitter). Trump praised Musk in his victory speech, saying: “You know, he spent two weeks in Philadelphia, in different parts of Pennsylvania campaigning.”
During his campaign, Trump openly disavowed what’s called Project 25, the positively racist blueprint crafted by the extremely right-wing Heritage Foundation. This plan includes mass deportations, both at the borders and by using the US military in cities. Project 25 also seeks to make contraception and abortion as tough as possible to access, reduce Medicaid and Medicare, and curb LGBTQ+ rights. One pressing question is how it would handle existing same-sex marriages, such as that of transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Will Trump and his right-wing minions be able to push through such sweeping, almost revolutionary, changes? The answers to that question will emerge in the coming months.
Where will India fit into the global Trump jigsaw puzzle? Certainly, Narendra Modi lavished attention on Trump, taking him for a grand ride around the Ahmedabad cricket stadium and then famously declaring ‘Abki baar Trump sarkar’ – luckily for Modi US President Joe Biden doesn’t seem to have taken offence at this declaration.
But India could be on tricky ground in other obvious ways. The Pannun case in the US is a clearly sticky situation. Friendly countries aren’t supposed to carry out murders in the US. Even trickier is the possibility that he may slap us with tariffs as a counter to our own import duties.
The influence of Trump Mark II will also reach globally, as well as the remotest parts of the US. Given Trump’s longstanding admiration for Russia’s Vladimir Putin, it’s conceivable that the US could withdraw support for Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky.
Can America afford to ditch an ally that has received billions in aid and advanced weaponry? An abrupt abandonment of Ukraine could embolden Russia to push forward with its long-held goal of annexing Ukrainian territory and Trump’s generals may have plenty to say on this issue.
The potential impact extends beyond Europe. In the Middle East, a new Trump administration might again walk away from diplomatic initiatives and ratchet up tensions, particularly with Iran.
During his first term, Trump dismantled the nuclear agreement that Barack Obama negotiated with Iran and could take an even harder stance this time. With Iran eager to retaliate against Israel for recent missile strikes, could it be tempted to act quickly before Trump takes office in January?
A deterioration of relations between the US and Iran could exacerbate conflicts in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, dragging the region into deeper turmoil and potentially threatening global oil supplies.
Trump's approach toward Israel and Gaza could also shift US policy in unpredictable ways, affecting not only the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but also the fragile balance with neighboring Lebanon and, ultimately, Saudi Arabia’s recent moves toward normalisation with Israel. Any perceived instability could slow or halt these delicate negotiations, as well as broader peace-building efforts in the region.
On a broader scale, Trump’s second term could redefine America’s relationships with its Nato allies. His previous ambivalence, if not downright hostility, towards the alliance, combined with his admiration for authoritarian leaders, could prompt European countries to seek stronger defence pacts among themselves and reduce reliance on the United States.
But that would be tough as the US contributes about two-thirds of Nato’s overall defence budget, underscoring the scale of resources Europe would need to muster on its own.
In Asia, Trump’s “America First” policy might further heighten tensions with China, particularly over Taiwan and the South China Sea. His direct, sometimes confrontational language toward China could unsettle the region, impacting areas like trade, technology, and cybersecurity.
Ultimately, a second Trump administration might bring a sharp shift away from established US foreign policy. This could set the stage for a new global order marked by rising nationalism, weakened international cooperation, and increased superpower rivalry. We should brace ourselves for an era of potentially unprecedented geopolitical changes and conflicts.
