Not all shocks are surprising and not all surprises are shocking. And then there are those rare moments that are both, that feel like a punch to the gut and a stab at the neck at the same time. Moments that come out of nowhere but take us everywhere, from the depths of grief to the pangs of uncertainty to the release of pent-up tension.

Episode 3 of Season 4 of Succession — streaming on HBO Max — has one such moment, so sudden and so significant in its occurrence that its effects are bound to be felt for the rest of the season (and the show). The surprise and the shock are not just because this moment comes to fruition with seven episodes still to go in Succession’s final season. It is also because such a moment comes to fruition on Succession, a masterpiece known for stirring the pot for so long that we can never guess when things will blow up. But blown up they have and how!

Succession has done the most non-Succession thing ever. It has produced something instant and irreversible, provoking a sense of utter incredulity. Imagine being served dessert in the first course at a French gourmet restaurant or visiting a Vincent van Gogh exhibition that has no place for The Starry Night. Great art builds great expectations but as Succession has just proved, great art can also subvert great expectations.

With that in mind, here is how to make sense of what just happened on Succession and what it means for what might happen later. Spoilers and predictions ahead.

The many deaths of Logan Roy

Nobody really dies just once. Depending on how they are loved — or loathed — by those around them, we all die multiple times, in multiple ways. Factually speaking, 18 minutes into the third episode of Season 4, Logan Roy (Brian Cox) dies after encountering breathing problems on a flight to Sweden. Emotionally speaking, he dies as a source of unprocessed trauma for Roman Roy (Kieran Culkin), as a man not forgiven but still loved for Kendall Roy (Jeremy Strong), and as a mixture of regret and resentment for Siobhan ‘Shiv’ Roy (Sarah Snook).

For his eldest son, Connor Roy (Alan Ruck), Logan’s death is the final nail in the coffin of his self-esteem, while for his son-in-law, Tom Wambsgans (Matthew Macfadyen), it is the removal of the last layer of protection that made him thrive in a world where he does not belong. For Logan’s country at large, his death is the loss of an “American champion” who built a “great family company”. For viewers, Logan’s death is a bolt from the blue on a par with the fateful Red Wedding from Game of Thrones (this episode, incidentally, is called ‘Connor’s Wedding’).

In hindsight, Logan’s death was not completely unprepared for. His musings on afterlife in this season’s first episode, followed by an uncharacteristic apology and expression of love to his kids in the second, now seem like cleverly planted clues. As does his final words in the show: “Today is the day… clean out the stalls, strategic refocus, a bit more f***ing aggressive”. That Logan spits out these sentences on a stairway to the sky (to a flight, more accurately) in an episode that aired on Easter only serves to justify the creator’s choice retrospectively. That the last shot of Logan is of the back of his head, just as it is at the end of the show’s opening credits, is another indication of how irony is baked into the structure of Succession.

Kendall’s rebirth puts him in command

Nobody has seen death on Succession more closely than Kendall. Ironically, everytime he does so, he is surrounded by water. Having accidentally drowned a waiter in the first season and almost drowned himself in the third, Kendall’s consciousness comes to surface with greater clarity than ever at sea, minutes after he delivers his parting message to his already dead father. Kendall is the first of the Roy siblings to acknowledge what has happened, even as he struggles to accept it. He is the one who realises the importance of taking control of the narrative in a post-Logan era and urges his fellow siblings to draft the media statement following their dad’s demise.

When Kendall tells Roman and Shiv that “what we do today will always be what we did the day our father died”, he is speaking less as a grieving son and more as an imminent successor. Kendall knows that just because Logan is no more, it does not mean that the Roys’ individual and collective ambitions are dead, too. Whatever the reality, they cannot do “anything that restricts our future freedom of movement”.

Does Tom get the axe and does Gerry come back?

Logan’s absence means that his trusted lieutenant, Tom, now finds himself in a spot of bother. Even as he behaves with softness and compassion towards Logan’s children at a critical time in their lives, he cannot stop covering his tracks in letting Greg Hirsch (Nicholas Braun) know that the latter must run to office and clean up Tom’s mess for him. Forever the bishop on Succession’s chess board, it is tempting to think that Tom might be sacrificed at any moment by any of the Roys — not least by Shiv, his wife — unless he can reorient his scheming skills to appeal to the Roys’ baser instincts.

On the other hand, Gerri Kellman (J. Smith-Cameron), whose firing was the last major decision taken by Logan, could well be reinserted into the fray. To Gerri’s credit, she remains vital in navigating the fallout from Logan’s death and her imperturbability is something the Roys and their company can do with. Whether that means Gerri also becomes a contender for succession is another matter altogether, for her own motivations in this regard are yet to be revealed.

The future of the succession

Who steers Waystar Royco’s deal with Lukas Matsson? Who tries to take over Pierce Global Media? Who does ATN and its “pirates” (as Logan had dubbed them) look up to? With more than seven hours of programming still left to take in, it is foolhardy to look for a resolution to these questions. What is certain is that none of these three answers can be Logan anymore. This means that for the first time in its history, Succession can genuinely go any which way, keeping viewers on their toes with every twist and turn. Now that the succession is bound to happen, the inherent circularity of the show has been broken. All roads lead to a new era now that Logan can no longer be the “monster that always wins”.

This sets the stage for Kendall to be more decisive, for Shiv to be more ruthless and for Roman to be more self-aware. Given that the Roy kids are no longer fighting their dad, they are now fighting both with and against each other. In doing so, they first need to figure out what they want — and with whom — before they plunge into figuring out how.

Considering showrunner Jesse Armstrong’s repeated reminders of how Succession upholds the real nature of media and family today, it will be wise to not look for a single pretender to be crowned. Even if Logan’s empire has its succession, Logan may not have his successor after all. For in the constantly fraught world of Succession, it takes a real leader to win the battles but a real monster to win the war. And, as of now, Succession’s only monster is no more.