Was it a masterly piece of political deception that caught everyone by surprise? Or was it a devious game that was too clever by half?

Those are the questions being asked at the highest levels of the political world. But for the BJP's top brass there isn't the slightest doubt that Rahul Gandhi has fled from the battlefield. "Bhaago mat," said Prime Minister Narendra Modi, cruelly turning the knife.

Smriti Irani who had expected a fierce electoral fight on her hands also heaped scorn on Gandhi. And it quickly became clear that this would be the BJP's line of attack on Gandhi in the coming weeks.

The scale of the political deception left just about everyone awestruck. It was announced in a terse and bland AICC press release that burst like a bombshell: “The Central Election Commission has approved the candidature of Shri Rahul Gandhi as Congress candidate…. From Rae Bareli.”

Unquestionably, Rahul’s shift to Rae Bareli makes eminent political sense. It has been Sonia Gandhi’s seat since 2004. She won the 2019 election by 1.67 lakh. That was down from 3.52 lakh in 2014. But it was still a huge margin and of victory.

“Smriti Irani must be secretly relieved,” said one political observer.

Facing Rahul will be the distinctly less colourful Dinesh Pratap Singh, a former Congressman who switched sides in 2018. He has nursed the constituency but defeating Rahul will still be an uphill task.

Congress leader and candidate from Rae Bareli constituency Rahul Gandhi waves to supporters after performing ‘havan’ for the Lok Sabha elections, in Rae Bareli, Friday, May 3, 2024. PTI

Don’t forget that Rae Bareli is the original Nehru-Gandhi pocket borough. It was originally Rahul’s grandfather Feroze Gandhi’s constituency and was then taken over by Rahul’s grandmother Indira Gandhi. Over the years it was handed over to people close to the family like Arun Nehru (before he fell out with the Gandhis) and Sheila Kaul.

In another piece of almost unbelievable political disinformation on Thursday afternoon, Sheila Kaul’s son Aashish Kaul was trotted out in front of the TV cameras as the possible candidate from Rae Bareli. Kaul, an actor by profession, declared that he was keeping his nomination papers ready in case he was needed. He added that he had accompanied his mother to Rae Bareli countless times and had seen it develop over the years. Even as Kaul was speaking workers were putting up Rahul Gandhi hoardings in Amethi and Priyanka posters in Rae Bareli.

And what about Priyanka? The Congress is doubtless sorry to disappoint her many fans but it doesn’t look like she will be contesting the 2024 general elections. There’s no denying she can be an impressive political performer on the stump. On Thursday she made a straight from the heart political speech talking about her father Rajiv Gandhi’s death. Political observers speculated she was unlikely to be standing because she is scheduled to be addressing a political rally in Fatehpur Sikri on Saturday afternoon.

Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra upon their arrival before the nomination filing of Rahul ahead of the third phase of the Lok Sabha elections, in Amethi district. PTI

The fact is that the Gandhis have played the press perfectly. First the story went out that Rahul would stand from Amethi, his old constituency and his sister Priyanka would be the Congress candidate from Rae Bareli. Then whispers went around that neither of them would be standing in Uttar Pradesh. Rahul will almost certainly win from Wayanad in Kerala which is an ultra-safe seat with a combined Muslim and Christian population of 46 per cent.

How safe is Rae Bareli? Four out of its five assembly constituencies were won in 2022 by the Samajwadi Party which is in alliance with the Congress. One is with the BJP. But it was the only Uttar Pradesh parliamentary constituency that the Congress won in 2019.

Definitely Rahul will have a greater chance of winning in Rae Bareli. He lost to Irani by 55,120 votes in the 2019 general election. Also, the five assembly constituencies that make up the Amethi Lok Sabha constituency all went against the Congress in the 2022 state elections.

Is this a full-throated return to Uttar Pradesh, the country’s largest state? The answer is probably not. There will always be the stigma of having dodged the battle in Amethi against giant--killer Irani. And Irani herself is bound to rub this in deep in the coming weeks. So, it's a qualified return to Uttar Pradesh but it will have to suffice. Don't forget that in the old days the belief in the political world was that only a politician from Uttar Pradesh could be the prime minister!

What’s more, Irani has been campaigning furiously in the last few days. Not shy of staging a few campaign stunts herself, she donned a helmet and drove a scooter through Amethi on Thursday. She also toured the newest projects that have come up in the constituency to remind voters that she has been an energetic advocate of their district.

There is one other factor at play. The opposition appears to be suddenly sensing that the ruling BJP is not as strong as it was five years ago. The Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav suddenly did a U-turn turn and announced he would be standing for election in Kannauj. His wife, Dimple, is also in the fray from Mainpuri, which was once the stronghold of her father-in-law Mulayam Singh Yadav.

The Election Commission, as we noted last week, unwittingly did Gandhi a huge favour by putting Wayanad, his almost guaranteed seat in the 18th Lok Sabha in the second round of polling on April 26. After that, he became free to turn his eyes northward to Uttar Pradesh.

Isn’t Wayanad a good enough safe seat to take him back to Parliament? The answer’s yes but Rae Bareli is squarely in the political heartland of India. A victory from here would raise his political status immeasurably. It will also be a sharp rebuke for Irani, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, and also Modi himself.

On the negative side, Gandhi will have to spend much of his time in the constituency and won’t be able to cross-cross the country as Modi is currently doing. Modi has the advantage of a super-safe seat in Gujarat.

It should be mentioned also that there’s a sudden burst of cheer in the Congress and I.N.D.I.A alliance camp. Suddenly, there are indications that the electoral picture is not as rosy as the BJP had painted. The party’s has ignominiously buried its ‘400 seats’ boast and now even insiders are focusing on getting between 280-300. It’s looking more and more likely that they will not be able to match their 2019 numbers.

Gandhi has undergone tremendous ups and downs in the last year. He was briefly turfed out of Parliament after the defamation case against him. He has gained in stature — even if not votes — after his marches across the length and breadth of the country. But now he is girding up for one more battle.