It was shock and awe for the BJP which will form the next government but has fallen far short of the 360-400 seats that the opinion polls had predicted it would win.

The ruling party took devastating hits in the country’s two biggest states, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. In Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC stormed to victory even though it had initially looked likely to lose heavily soon after counting started.

Mamata quickly went on the offensive, charging that, “the prime minister has lost his credibility therefore he should resign immediately.” She added: “We have broken the BJP’s back.”

The way the results unfolded created an amazing situation where the Congress and the India alliance were jubilant and celebrating while the actual winners, the BJP was disconsolate and staying away from public view.

The spotlight is now turning on the BJP’s two key allies N. Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar who between them have the 30 seats that will enable the BJP to form the next government. One analyst pointed out that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will now have to deal with two of the craftiest regional politicians, skilled at negotiating.

In Vijayawada, Naidu made a brief appearance before his supporters who were holding ecstatic celebrations. Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and also Opposition leader Sharad Pawar have called Naidu and there are strong whispers in political circles that Naidu might be tempted to switch sides. Naidu cancelled a press conference in the evening, adding to the frenzied rumours.

The BJP – at the time of writing – has won 235 seats on its own and will depend on its two ageing allies, Naidu and Nitish Kumar, who between them have 30 seats, to form the new government. The NDA alliance has won about 290 seats which was around 60 seats below what had been predicted by the exit polls on Saturday. The India alliance has about 231 and the Congress has picked up 100. That’s up from 54 in the last elections in 2019.

BJP revereses in Up, Maharashtra

The BJP’s biggest reverses came in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. In Uttar Pradesh the Samajwadi Party (SP) pulled off a stunning performance. The biggest star of the day could well be Akhilesh Yadav, whose SP astounded analysts by winning 36 seats compared to the BJP’s 33 seats. The Congress won seven seats. The exit polls had predicted that the BJP would win almost 70 seats in the state. Mayawati’s BSP crashed out without a single seat and its supporters appeared to have voted tactically and switched to backing the SP.

In Maharashtra, the predictions that the BJP would take a heavy hit turned out to be correct. The Maha Vikas Adhadi alliance of the Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress and the NCP (SC) has done even better than expected and is likely to win 29 out of 42 seats in the state. Two Opposition leaders, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, showed they still have huge clout in the state.

Several celebrity politicians faced bitter battles during the election and in Amethi giant-slayer Smriti Irani, who defeated Rahul Gandhi five years ago, crashed to defeat against Gandhi family loyalist Kishore Lal. In Thiruvananthapuram, Shashi Tharoor defeated the BJP’s Rajiv Chandrasekhar in a bitter three-way contest. Tharoor finally surged ahead when coastal voters swung in his favour.

Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav. File picture.

BJP's first winner in Kerala

Actor Suresh Gopi was the BJP’s first winner ever in Thrissur, Kerala. Here too the Congress was defeated in a three-cornered fight. But analysts point out that Gopi is hardly a hard-core Hindutva fan. In fact, appearing on TV after winning he stressed how he had studied at a Christian school and visited churches regularly.

Rahul Gandhi won in both his constituencies, Wayanad in Kerala and Rae Bareli in Uttar Pradesh where he smashed home by a huge 3.88 lakh. Asked at the press conference which constituency he would resign from he admitted openly that he hadn’t decided.

But in terms of pure numbers, the biggest winner of the day may have been former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan who displayed his strong hold on the state by winning his election by over 8 lakh. By contrast, Prime Minister Modi won in Varanasi by 1.5 lakh which was sharply down from a margin of 4.79 lakh votes in 2019.

Allies hold the key

Modi will be Prime Minister for a record third time but he will be heavily reliant on allies like Naidu and Nitish, who are both certain to extract their pound of flesh in exchange for their support. Dealing with muscular and demanding allies will be a new experience for Modi who has never had to face such a situation in the last 10 years.

Naidu has two key demands: he wants backing to build Amaravati as the state’s new capital. Besides that he wants Andhra Pradesh to be categorised as a Category C state which would give it many economic benefits. But the state is obviously comparatively affluent, which makes it difficult for any central government to accede to this request.

Early in the day, it had appeared that the BJP would trounce Mamata Banerjee but there was a dramatic turnaround after a few hours and the Trinamool Congress grabbed 30 seats, leaving the BJP with half-a-dozen seats less than it had won in the last election.

Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar. File picture.

Congress also celebrating

Though the BJP will almost certainly be forming the next government, the Congress was also celebrating their better than expected performance at the polls. Sonia Gandhi, Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi were looking triumphant when they arrived at the Congress Party headquarters. It was clear that the Congress has scored enough successes today to ensure that it can present a strong Opposition to the BJP over the next five years. At the press conference Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge declared that the mandate was against Modi.

The BJP’s top leaders meanwhile, are reported to be meeting at party President J. P. Nadda’s house to discuss the unexpected results.

Analysts insisted that the results would be good for democracy. Said one: “Indian democracy has become stronger with the emergence of a strong Opposition, and a clear verdict that the people do not appreciate the politics of hatred and division.”