Driving through the narrow village roads on one of his daily campaign trails, Union environment and labour minister Bhupender Yadav spots a group of Muslims sitting outside their house. A dilemma briefly grips the BJP leader, contesting his maiden Lok Sabha polls from Alwar.

“Should I greet them?” he asks a party leader in the back seat. This leader, managing the campaign, looks unsure too. Bhupender signals the driver to stop, rolls down the window glass and greets the nearly half-a-dozen Muslims. “Sab thik hai? Roza thik se chal raha hai? (All well? Roza going well?),” he asks.

“Ji, ji chal raha hai. Ab kal Eid hai,” the elderly in the group responded. Yadav drives ahead without directly seeking votes from them.

“The Muslims here are not going to vote for us. At some places (on the campaign trail) they welcome us but on the polling day they vote for the Congress,” the BJP leader managing the campaign tells this correspondent. Bhupender listens to this without passing any remarks.

Alwar, bordering Haryana, has witnessed cases of mob lynching of Muslims by cow vigilante groups. In 2017, the lynching of Pehlu Khan in Alwar’s Behror hit the headlines. A year later, Rakbar Khan was lynched over suspicion of cow smuggling in Ramgarh. Though there have been no such incidents recently, the communal divide exists below the radar.

“Modiji’s politics is of ‘sabka saath, sabka vikas’. I’m not a leader of any particular community but all the 36 ‘biradaris’ (communities),” Bhupender tells a crowd in a temple compound, 200 metres ahead of the Muslim hamlet.

The effort to woo the majority Hindu “biradaris” stems from the belief of BJP poll managers that they would not get the support of the substantial Muslim voters in the constituency.

The contest in this eastern Rajasthan seat, a constituency previously dominated by the Congress and now with the BJP since 2014, is being keenly watched. The Congress has fielded Lalit Yadav, an MLA from the Mundawar Assembly segment and a popular local youth. Less than six months back, 36-year-old Lalit defied a pro-BJP wave to win by a big margin of over 35,000 votes.

The Yadavs as a caste form the largest voters’ bloc. The BJP managers fear that if the Yadav voters tilt substantially towards “local caste icon” Lalit, the going will get tough for “outsider” Bhupender. Bhupender is being labelled as an “outsider” as he hails from Ajmer, over 300km north-east of Alwar.

After two consecutive failures, the Congress has replaced former Union minister Jitendra Singh, the scion of the Alwar royals and a Rajput, with Lalit. The BJP too has replaced its two-term MP from the seat, Baba Balaknath (a Yadav), to field Bhupender, seen as “Modi-Shah’s nominee”.

Despite being a senior minister, Bhupender lacks mass appeal and appears to be banking completely on “Modi ki guarantee”.

Acute shortage of water has emerged as the biggest issue not only in Alwar but across Rajasthan. “Has a water tank been installed here?” Bhupender asks the villagers of Semli Dilawar. “No”, the villagers said. The minister quickly blames the previous Congress government in the state.

“Modiji had sent money (for the water tank). But the Congress government here did not use the money properly.... But now a BJP government has come and I promise water will soon reach every home under Modiji’s Jal Jivan mission,” he said. “Yeh Modi ki guarantee hai,” he emphasises amid applause.

As he rushes to reach his next stop, the women of the village confront him with a barrage of complaints. “Paani bilkul nahi hai; Yahan bahut garibi hai; NREGA me koi kaam nahi ho raha hai; Gas ki tanki bhar nahi paa rahe hain (There is no water at all; There is extreme poverty here; No work is available under NREGA; We don’t have money to fill LPG cylinders),” the women tell Bhupender.

“Sab thik ho jaayega (Everything will be fine),” he assures them and leaves.

Asked if the water scarcity combined with the “outsider tag” and the possibility of a significant split in the Yadav vote bank could pose a big challenge for him, Bhupender said: “Not at all. This election is not about electing Bhupender Yadav but making Modiji Prime Minister for a third term. Modiji’s credibility is very high and people trust that only Modiji can deliver.”

His challenger, Lalit, claims there was no Modi factor in Alwar. “This is an election between a local versus an outsider,” he told The Telegraph. “Bhupenderji will leave for Delhi after the polls but I will be available here 24x7 to solve the problems of the people.”

The Yadav voters here are divided. “Lalit is already our MLA here. If we elect Bhupender, then we will have two leaders from the community,” said Inderlal Yadav of Umrain village.

The strong perception that Modi was set to get a third term is also weighing on the voters despite unemployment and price rise being repeatedly flagged by the Opposition.

“Sarkar toh Modi ki hi banegi aur Bhupender Yadav mantri honge toh Alwar ko fayda toh hoga hi (The government will be of Modi only and Bhupender Yadav will surely become a minister and Alwar will be benefited),” said Harlal of Laxmangarh.

(Alwar votes on April 19)