The BJP has suffered 25 per cent loss in the reserved Lok Sabha seats in 2024 compared to what it had won in 2019.
The party won 30 of the 84 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and 25 of the 47 seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs). In 2019, the BJP had won 46 SC seats and 31 ST seats. In 2014, the party had won 40 SC seats and 27 ST seats. While the BJP lost 44 seats in the 226 non-reserved category constituencies, it lost 19 seats in the reserved category in 2024.
Political observers said Dalits were determined to vote against the BJP this time. Tanoj Meshram, a former civil servant and associate professor of public policy at SPJIMR, Mumbai, and a keen observer of anti-caste politics, said the politically aware SCs, particularly in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, have voted to prevent the BJP from returning to power.
In the two states, the anti-BJP approach of the SCs was glaring. The Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA) headed by Prakash Ambedkar, the grandson of Bhimrao Ambedkar, in Maharashtra and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in UP, have been championing the issue of social justice. The Dalits have traditionally voted for the parties.
In 2019, a VBA-supported candidate in Maharashtra and 10 BSP candidates in UP won the Lok Sabha seats. The VBA had secured over 7 per cent of votes in Maharashtra, while the BSP got about 19 per cent of votes in UP.
This time, neither the VBA nor the BSP could open their accounts. The vote share of the BSP has dropped to 9.39 per cent in UP and the VBA's vote share is yet to be uploaded on the Election Commission website.
Meshram said the Dalits are emotionally attached to the Constitution because it has helped them achieve a lot. "They sensed a threat to the Constitution when the BJP gave the 400-paar slogan. Both states clearly voted against the BJP," he said.
He cited the example of the SC seats Ramtek and Mumbai North-Central.
In Ramtek, Congress candidate Shyam Kumar Barve got 6.13 lakh votes to win against Shiv Sena (Shinde)'s Raju Parve. Former IAS officer Kishore Gajbhiye contested as an Independent with the VBA's support.
Dalits have a significant vote share in the seat and Gajbhiye, who is popular among the Dalits in the region, had secured 4.7 lakh votes as a Congress candidate in 2019. This time, the Congress didn’t give him a ticket and even after VBA chief Prakash Ambedkar campaigned for Gajbhiye, he could manage only 24,000 votes.
"The Dalits thought they must defeat the BJP at any cost. They realised Gajbhiye as an Independent with the VBA support cannot win. They all voted for the Maha Vikash Aghadi (MVA) candidate," Meshram said.
In Mumbai North-Central, the BJP had fielded lawyer Ujwal Nikam, believed to have not put up a strong fight as a public prosecutor in the case related to the murder of four Dalits in Khairlanji in 2006. The Dalits, thus, united to vote against him.
Varsha Gaikwad, a Dalit leader and MLA from Dharavi, which falls under the Mumbai South-Central Lok Sabha seat, contested as a Congress candidate and won the Mumbai North-Central seat despite not belonging to the constituency.
In UP, the Samajwadi Party got 37 seats. "This could not have been possible without the support of the Dalits," he said.
Meshram said Mallikarjun Kharge holding the post of president of Congress party also encouraged the Dalits. In addition, the party's stand in favour of caste census and proportionate representation of each social category in government jobs created confidence among Dalits on Congress.
Meshram said the BJP's slogan of 400-plus seats created fear among the Dalits that the next government may make drastic changes in the Constitution. Chandrasekhar Madavi, a 35-year-old tribal from Wardha in Maharashtra, said the SCs/STs were concerned about the "unconstitutional activities" of the BJP. "Under Modi, the party is doing everything to remain in power. It is using religion to achieve its objectives when the Constitution does not allow religion to be used for politics," Madavi said.
