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regular-article-logo Monday, 23 December 2024

Fed raises rates by 25bps, hints at pause

Move capped fastest series of rate increases since 1980s, as central bankers attempt to slow economy and weigh down price increases

Jeanna Smialek New York Published 04.05.23, 04:45 AM
Fed chair Jerome Powell

Fed chair Jerome Powell

US Federal Reserve officials raised interest rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday in the tenth straight move in their fight against rapid inflation — but they also opened the door to a possible pause in the coming months.

Central bankers lifted rates to a range of 5 per cent to 5.25 per cent, a level they have not reached since the summer of 2007. The move capped the fastest series of rate increases since the 1980s, as central bankers attempt to slow the economy and weigh down price increases.

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But in their statement announcing the decision, policymakers also indicated that they will watch to see whether future rate moves are necessary. That marks a shift in stance: for months, they had assumed that additional changes would be needed.

The change opens the door to a possible pause in Fed interest rate increases, but it also leaves central bankers with options. Officials could raise rates by more if the economy and inflation prove hot.

“In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 per cent over time, the committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments,” the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee said in its release.

Fed officials are wrestling with conflicting economic challenges. Inflation remains well above their 2 per cent goal, though it has begun to moderate, and the economy has shown signs of resilience in spite of their aggressive rate moves. At the same time, recent tumult in the banking sector could slow lending and increase the odds of a recession, and an impending debt limit showdown creates the risk of turmoil in markets.

Central bankers will need to figure out how much they expect the economy to slow in light of those developments — and what that means for policy. If consumer spending is poised to remain robust, it could allow companies to continue raising prices, and the Fed may need to do more to make sure that inflation comes back under control. But if the economy is barrelling toward a serious recession in light of recent developments, the Fed might be better striking a more cautious stance.

Investors anticipated that the Fed would lift interest rates in May before hitting pause.

Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, will offer more details on the decision at a news conference at 2:30pm EST.

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