Different output estimates by the country’s leading sugar bodies have opened up a debate on a hike in the export quota for the present marketing season.

The government is set to make a decision on raising the quota later this month from the present 6 million tonnes (mt) amid pressure to stabilise supply in the local markets.

The output is likely to be lower 3.6 per cent at 34.5mt for the present season (October-September 2023) compared with a year ago, according to the All-India Sugar Traders Association (AISTA).

AISTA predictions take into account weather-related issues that cropped up after October. The production estimates are lower than last year’s output of 35.8mt. An additional 5mt will be diverted to ethanol, the AISTA said.

The association has put exports at 7mt this season against 11.2mt a year ago that may lead to the Centre deciding on a higher quota of 7mt against 6mt a year ago.

The exports will have to be made before May 31. Exporters have struck deals to export 5.5 mt, leaving only 0.5mt unsold. Food secretary Sanjeev Chopra said the ministry will assess domestic production in January and decide on raising the quota.

The Indian Sugar Mills Association had forecast higher output of 41mt before the diversion to ethanol. Output after the diversion is expected to be 36.5 mt. The AISTA has projected consumption at 27.5mt and closing stock at 6 mt, unchanged from last season.