The politically sensitive onion prices in the retail market have spiked 43 per cent to Rs 33.2 per kg just weeks before the 2024 general election, with policymakers on alert amidst expectation of lower output during the ongoing season.

The output of the kitchen staple in the 2023-24 crop year may fall 15.6 per cent to 25.4 million tonnes (mt) as key growing regions received weak rains, the agriculture ministry said.

Onion, which is considered the poor man’s vegetable, not only adds flavour to many dishes but has brought down governments in the past.

Production is expected to be lower by 3.4 mt in Maharashtra, 995,000 tonnes in Karnataka, 354,000 tonnes in Andhra Pradesh and 312,000 tonnes in Rajasthan, the main producing states.

Analysts said the lower output could further spike the prices and add to the inflationary pressure in the economy.

Costly thali

A vegetarian thali became dearer by 7 per cent in February primarily on the upsurge in onion and tomato prices, according to rating agency Crisil.

The cost of a vegetable thali, which comprises roti, vegetables (onions, tomatoes and potatoes), rice, dal, curd and salad, increased to Rs 27.5 per plate in February from Rs 25.6 in the year-ago period, Crisil Market Intelligence and Analysis said in its monthly “Roti Rice Rate” report said.

“The cost of the veg thali increased due to a surge of 29 per cent and 38 per cent on-year in prices of onion and tomato, respectively,” it said, adding that rice and pulses have also got dearer.

“Unpredictable weather shocks remain the biggest risk to the inflation outlook, though government intervention, as in the past, to increase food supplies in the market could partially cushion the adverse impact,” rating agency Crisil said in its India Outlook 2024.