New Delhi: Retail inflation dropped to a three-month low 5.02 per cent in September because of the easing of food prices.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman, however, warned that global uncertainties combined with domestic disruptions may keep inflationary pressures elevated in the coming months.

Retail inflation — which is based on the cost price index (CPI) — has stepped inside the Reserve Bank’s threshold of below 6 per cent after a gap of two months. Core CPI inflation moderated to 4.5 per cent in September from 4.8 per cent in August, economists said.

Inflation was at 6.83 per cent in August and 7.41 per cent in September 2022.

“While domestic consumption and investment demand are expected to continue to drive growth, global and regional uncertainties and domestic disruptions may keep inflationary pressures elevated in the coming months, warranting greater vigilance by the government and the RBI,” Sitharaman said at a World Bank meeting in Marrakech.

She said the government has already taken pre-emptive measures to contain food inflation, which is likely to subside price pressures.

According to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), inflation in the food basket came down to 6.56 per cent in September from 9.94 per cent in the preceding month, pulled down by the sharp fall in tomato prices that had propelled headline retail inflation to 7.44 per cent in July — the highest in 15 months.

However, price pressures remained in the food segment outside of vegetables.

Suman Chowdhury, chief economist and head – research, Acuite Ratings & Research, said: “The geo-political risks in the background and the upward pressure on oil prices, apart from the food output risks, will keep the RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC) watchful and any reversal of the monetary policy stance is likely to happen only in the next fiscal (year).”

“The upward pressure persists in other food items with 50 per cent of the food and beverages sub-components by weight, seeing 6 per cent-plus inflation in September,” Gaura Sen Gupta, India Economist at IDFC First Bank, said.

“The uneven monsoon, lag in sowing of crucial kharif crops such as pulses and oilseeds and modest reservoir levels do not augur well for the outlook for food inflation,” Aditi Nayar, Icra’s chief economist said.