The output of eight infrastructure industries expanded 7.9 per cent in September — the highest in three months — led by coal, fertiliser, cement and electricity segments, according to official data released on Monday.
In September last year, the infrastructure growth rate stood at 5.4 per cent. It was 4.1 per cent in August. The previous high was in June when output expanded 13.1 per cent.
Coal output rose 12 per cent in September, fertiliser 11.8 per cent, cement 12.1 per cent and electricity 11 per cent. Refinery products output rose 6.6 per cent against 6 per cent in the same month last year.
However, crude oil contracted 2.3 per cent and natural gas production 1.7 per cent.
Aditi Nayar, chief economist, Icra said: “We expect the IIP (index of industrial production) to revert to a modest 4-6 per cent YoY (year on year) rise in September, from the unexpected contraction in August 2022.”
Fiscal deficit The Centre’s fiscal deficit in the first half of the current financial year has widened to touch Rs 6.20 lakh crore, accounting for 37.3 per cent of annual estimates, according to official data.
The fiscal deficit — the difference between expenditure and revenue — was 35 per cent of budget estimates (BE) a year ago.
“Since the Union governments is not undertaking revenue expenditure commensurate to revenue collection, its cash balance with the RBI has swelled to Rs 2.05 lakh crore by end-September 2022. This high cash balance is also one of the reasons of tight liquidity in the banking system currently,” Sunil Sinha, principal economist, India Ratings and Research.
“We expect strong revenue collection growth to continue in the coming months and therefore financing additional expenditure on PMGKAY, increased fertiliser subsidy or any other unforeseen expenditure is unlikely to destabilise budgetary fiscal arithmetic.”
According to the data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), thegovernment’s total receipts,including taxes, stood at Rs12.03 lakh crore or 52.7 per cent of BE for 2022-23. During the year-ago period, the collection was 55.6 per cent of BE 2021-22.
Tax revenue stood at Rs10.11 lakh crore or 52.3 percent of this year’s BE. Total expenditure was Rs 18.23 lakh crore or 46.2 per cent of BE.
“Based on revenue trends and growth prospects as well as higher expenditures that are targeted on subsidy, there can be a slippage of 0.2-0.3per cent in fiscal deficit ratio though the higher denominator due to nominal GDP being higher than expected will cushion the shock,” MadanSabnavis, chief economist, Bank of Baroda, said.
