A sheaf of economic data is due this week that is expected to provide a road map to the new government in power.

GDP numbers are due on Friday — for the full year last fiscal as well as the fourth quarter — along with fiscal deficit data for the last fiscal and the core sector.

On June 1, Saturday, the last day of polling, GST figures will roll out, while the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May will be announced on June 3, a day before the election results.

The fiscal deficit is projected to be lower than the revised estimate of 5.8 per cent announced in the interim budget as both tax and non-tax revenues have performed better than expected in the fourth quarter, driven by strong GST collections and dividends from PSUs.

Economists predict the deficit to be 10-20 basis points lower than the revised estimate, with some projecting a reduction of up to 40 basis points.

Rating agency Icra has put the growth in the last fiscal at 7.8 per cent. Fourth quarter growth is seen to be lower than 8.4 per cent reported in the third quarter that took analysts by surprise.

The gap between GDP and gross value added (GVA) growth is expected to narrow down to 100 basis points from 185 basis points. Icra has put GVA growth at 7 per cent for the last fiscal.

GST collections for May are expected to decline on a month-on-month basis from an all-time high collection of ₹2.10 lakh crore in April.

E-way bill generation, a key indicator of collections, has slowed down to ₹96.7 million from ₹103.5 million in the previous month, according to Care Edge.

S&P Global Market Intelligence said economic momentum is expected to remain strong in this fiscal, supported by government capital spending and a recovery in private consumption and investment.

Concerns over food prices persist, but the inflation outlook has improved since early 2024.

Consumer price inflation projected to moderate to 5.3 per cent in 2024 from 5.7 per cent in 2023.