India’s economy is likely to have grown at a robust 8 per cent in 2023-24, exceeding initial projections, with the possibility of even higher growth, chief economic adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran said on Wednesday.
The upbeat assessment comes on the back of strong performances in the first three-quarters of the last fiscal, with GDP expanding 7.8 per cent, 7.6 per cent, and 8.4 per cent respectively. This surpasses estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at 7.8 per cent and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at 7.5 per cent.
In its second advance estimate published in February, the NSO projected GDP growth for 2023-24 at 7.6 per cent compared with 7 per cent in 2022-23.
It saw nominal GDP growth in 2023-24 at 9 per cent. The provisional GDP figures for the last fiscal will come out on May 31.
“The IMF has projected a growth rate of 7.8 per cent for 2023-24. But if you look at the trajectory of growth in the first three quarters, obviously, the possibility that the growth rate touches 8 per cent is quite high,” he said at an event organised by the NCAER here.
However, he said, a lot would depend on how the monsoon shapes up. The expectations are of above-normal monsoon, but the rains may vary across regions and over time.
Nageswaran said he doesn’t foresee any significant upside risk to inflation at the moment and expects retail inflation to remain within the midpoint of the RBI’s target range of 2-6 per cent in 2024-25.
“There can always be scenarios on the geopolitical front that can cause inflation to be more than what we expect. But at this point, our baseline scenario is that inflation gradually converges towards the midpoint of the target range in 2024-25,” he added.
The consumer price index (CPI)-based retail inflation fell to 4.85 per cent in March, dipping below 5 per cent for the first time since November 2023, mainly due to a decline in food and fuel prices and a continued easing in core inflation.
Costly thali
The soaring prices of onions and tomatoes have pushed up the average cost of a vegetarian thali by nearly 8 per cent in April, according to a report released on Wednesday.
However, a decline in broiler price contributed to a decrease in the cost of a non-vegetarian meal, as per Crisil Market Intelligence and Analysis’ monthly “Roti Rice Rate” report.
The cost of veg thali, which comprises roti, vegetables (onions, tomatoes and potatoes), rice, dal, curd and salad, increased to ₹27.4 per plate in April from ₹25.4 in the year-ago period, and was also marginally higher when compared to ₹27.3 in March 2024, it said.
