The goods and services tax (GST) revenue climbed 10.3 per cent to ₹1.82 lakh crore (trillion) in July, government data showed on Thursday, but some analysts flagged potential moderation in the coming months.

“A potential stagnation or decline in collections during August (compared with July) is anticipated due to the monsoon season’s impact on overall economic momentum,” said Saurabh Agarwal, tax partner at EY India.

A breakdown of the data reveals that domestic GST revenue grew 8.9 per cent to ₹1.34 lakh crore, while the tax collected on imports jumped 14.2 per cent to ₹48,039 crore. Refunds were 19 per cent lower than the corresponding period last year, resulting in a net GST collection of over ₹1.66 lakh crore, a growth of 14.4 per cent.

Despite the July figures being higher than the previous month, they fell short of the record ₹2.10 lakh crore collected in April 2024. However, the overall trend in the first four months of the fiscal year is positive, with a 10.2 per cent growth in gross collections to ₹7.39 lakh crore.

“While the gross GST revenues have shown an increase of 10.3 per cent, it is interesting to observe that the growth in GST revenues from imports is more than that from domestic supplies,” said M.S. Mani, partner, Deloitte India. “There appears to be a wide divergence in the growth of collections compared with the same month last year across states.”

Abhishek Jain, indirect tax head & partner, KPMG, said: A 10 per cent plus growth in collections for this year aligns well with expectations and depicts signs of stability and maturity of GST implementation in India. With festivities coming up in the next few months, the collections should witness a further increase.”