Global manufacturing struggled in June as higher prices and a darker economic outlook left consumers wary of making purchases, while China’s strict Covid-19 lockdowns and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added to the supply chain disruptions, surveys showed. From the United States to the euro zone, activity at factories slowed to levels last seen during the initial wave of the pandemic.

They were the latest signs pointing to the risk of all-out recession in the global economy, coming after the world’s top chipmakers said they were facing waning demand and as central bankers warned of painful interest rate hikes ahead.

“Between central banks digging their heels in to counter inflation and growing fears there is absolutely no path to a soft landing for the global economy, there are few, if any, places to hide,” said Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.

The slowdown in the United States was accompanied by declines in new orders and employment. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of national factory activity dropped to 53.0 last month, the lowest reading since June 2020, from 56.1 in May. Its measure of new orders contracted for the first time in two years, while employment remained weak.

The picture was equally gloomy in the euro zone, where manufacturing output also slowed. S&P Global’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 52.1 in June from May’s 54.6, its lowest level since August 2020. “We doubt the outlook for manufacturing will improve any time soon,” said Andrew Hunter, a senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

India stumbles In India, activity in the manufacturing sector expanded at its slowest pace in the past nine months, according to the S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. The closely-watched gauge read 53.9 in June, lower than the 54.6 clocked in May -- an indication that the growth in sales and production had moderated amid intense price pressures. The index has remained above the 50-level that separates growth from contraction for a full year.