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Regular-article-logo Friday, 15 November 2024

GDP growth shock for RBI governor

'We had projected 5.8% and I think almost everybody had projected not below 5.5 or so'

Our Special Correspondent Mumbai Published 16.09.19, 07:20 PM
While the MPC has identified growth as its topmost priority, Shaktikanta Das observed that monetary policy alone cannot play a role as he stopped short of seeking a fiscal stimulus from the government.

While the MPC has identified growth as its topmost priority, Shaktikanta Das observed that monetary policy alone cannot play a role as he stopped short of seeking a fiscal stimulus from the government. (PTI)

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday said he was “surprised” by the 5 per cent growth in GDP in the first quarter, which looked worse than expected.

India’s GDP growth of the 5 per cent was the lowest in the last six years, sharply below the estimates given by the RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC).

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The MPC in its August meeting had trimmed the GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent from 7 per cent with a downward bias.

It had expected growth to be in the range of 5.8-6.6 per cent in the first half of 2019-20 and 7.3-7.5 per cent in the remaining six months.

In an interview to television channels, Das acknowledged the numbers had surprised him.

“We had projected 5.8 per cent and I think almost everybody had projected not below 5.5 or so. But the number of 5 per cent is a surprise,’’ he said, while disclosing that research and analytical teams at the central bank were assessing as to how this variance occurred.

He added that the second quarter growth of all advanced economies was lower than the first quarter so there is a deceleration.

“But again I am not trying to justify our slowdown through the prism of the global slowdown although it does impact... we have domestic issues also,” he said.

Asked when the economy will see a revival, Das said it was difficult to make an estimate as there were many things which were still playing out.

While the MPC has identified growth as its topmost priority, the RBI governor observed that monetary policy alone cannot play a role as he stopped short of seeking a fiscal stimulus from the government.

He, however, welcomed the measures announced by the Centre over the past couple of weeks.

He added that with slowdown being visible for the past few months, the central bank has been cutting interest rates to kickstart the economy. So far this calendar year, the RBI has reduced the policy repo rate by 110 basis points.

“I think with the right measures, things should improve. It’s a positive trend that the government is responding very fast and I don’t think we have heard the last from the government with regard to dealing with the current economic situation ... My expectation is that it will be a continuous process and they would definitely be dealing with other challenges,” he said.

The RBI governor was also of the view that if the latest crisis in Saudi Arabia lingers, it could impact India’s current account deficit.

“The Saudi oil crisis was something totally unanticipated. The trade tension between the two largest economies ... so much of uncertainty happening all around,” he said.

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