Dhanteras and Diwali demand for gems and jewellery this year is anticipated to remain strong despite rising prices, with Diwali sales potentially crossing Rs 30,000 crore in the domestic market, according to industry experts.

Price hikes in precious metals are prompting consumers to view gold as a reliable asset, while silver is gaining popularity among people due to its relatively lower price and high industrial demand.

Some experts estimate sales growth in value terms of 10-15 per cent year-on-year this Diwali across the country, though there may be a dent in volume.

Silver has emerged as the top performer with returns exceeding 40 per cent, followed by gold at 23 per cent, significantly surpassing stock market benchmark returns.

Eastern Regional Chairman of the Gems & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) said, “Gold continues to shine due to global uncertainties and geopolitical conditions, while silver is drawing substantial interest as an affordable option.” The Council also noted a shift from diamonds to gold this year, as the popularity of lab-grown diamonds has impacted the demand for natural diamonds.

Ashok Bengani, President of the Ankurhati Gems and Jewellery Manufacturers Welfare Association, highlighted industry efforts to reduce import duties to boost market sustainability.

“The geopolitical situation underscores the need for visionary leadership from the Finance Ministry to reduce import duties by 9 per cent, from the current 15 per cent on gold imports, making it easier for the market to thrive,” he said.

“This Dhanteras and Diwali season, sales are expected to cross Rs 30,000 crore, despite some decline in volume,” Bengani added.

Suvankar Sen, MD & CEO of Senco Gold Ltd, noted that higher gold prices may slightly impact sales volume, estimating a 12-15 per cent decline in volume. However, value-wise, he expects a 10-12 per cent increase.

“The addition of lower 9Kt purity and lightweight gold jewellery options has expanded demand opportunities, especially among working women,” he said.

Anjali Jewellers echoed this sentiment, citing strong demand driven by gold’s reputation as a safe investment.

“This Dhanteras, there’s an individualistic trend with buyers selecting pieces tailored to their needs. While some are purchasing bridal jewellery, others prefer lightweight, everyday pieces,” said Annargha Uuttiya Chowdhury of Anjali Jewellers.

Men’s jewellery is also seeing a notable uptick, with items such as bracelets, rings, and ear studs gaining traction, he said.

Bablu De, President of the Swarna Silpa Bachao Committee, a prominent retailers’ body, expressed optimism despite rising prices, with expected sales growth of 10-20 per cent.

“This year’s business is expected to be better, with higher prices giving consumers confidence that the value of gold will continue to shine,” he said.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOFSL) provided insights into future trends, projecting silver prices to potentially surpass gold.

MOFSL predicts silver could reach Rs 1,25,000 on MCX within 12-15 months, driven by industrial demand and safe-haven buying. For gold, MOFSL has set medium- and long-term targets of Rs 81,000 and Rs 86,000, respectively, with the metal currently bolstered by global market uncertainties, interest rate expectations, and a depreciating rupee.

“Geopolitical tensions and potential rate cuts are major factors propelling the rally in precious metals this year, creating a positive outlook for Diwali,” said Navneet Damani, Group Senior VP of Commodity Research at MOFSL.

Amit Pratihari, MD of De Beers India, said, “Diamonds are becoming an aspirational purchase across various demographics, especially during the wedding season, which coincides with the festive period. We foresee sustained demand growth well into the new year.”

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