Deficient rain in the Northern plains, especially in the Gangetic region, is likely to increase food inflation in the near term as overall paddy production will be hit in these areas due to poor monsoon, India Ratings and Research said in a report.

Major agricultural states such as Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh have had poor rains during the just concluded season, which may lead to an increase in the prices of rice due to lower paddy products in the near term.

The share of these states in overall rice sowing in the Kharif season (as of September 23) has declined to 24.1 per cent from 26 per cent in the previous year, according to an assessment by the rating agency

This is despite the fact that the 2022 monsoon has been above normal but has not spread adequately across the regions. As of September 30, the rainfall fared well at 92.5cm, which is 6 per cent above the long period average (LPA) of 86.86 cm.

At the disaggregate level, while 12 states/Union territories had excess rainfall (deviation from LPA greater than 20 per cent), 18 states/UTs recorded a normal rainfall (deviation from LPA between negative 19 per cent and positive 19 per cent).

No export ban on rice

The commerce ministry on Tuesday clarified that there is no export ban on rice and traders can ship the commodity after paying 20 per cent duty.

On September 8, the government banned exports of broken rice.

In a trade notice, the directorate-general of foreign trade said it has received representations regarding rice (5 per cent and 25 per cent broken) where irrevocable letter of credit has been issued before September 8 is also being stopped at the ports.