The first fortnight this month remains crucial for the auto industry to meet its growth targets for the fiscal.

The industry is now holding 30 days of stocks at the end of October of 3.35 lakh units.

“This is quite a high stock after a long time,” said Shashank Srivastava, senior executive officer of Maruti Suzuki. “This level of stock was last seen five years ago in the period September to November of 2018.”

The first 15 days of November are auspicious festive days. The retail sales during this period particularly in the northern and central parts of India where Diwali and Dhanteras are observed with much fanfare will determine whether the industry will meet its targets.

If retail sales in this period are lower than expected, it will impact the wholesale numbers from November as the stock is quite high, pointed out Srivastava.

Based on this high stock, the projections for the industry have been revised.

He said the initial growth projections for the industry are sales of 41 lakh to 41.3 lakh units in 2023-24, a growth rate of 5 to 7 per cent.

With the second half of the fiscal well on its way, projections for the fiscal are getting closer to 5.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent growth.

“There is a slight upward revision from the lower band of 5 per cent to 5.5 per cent, but the higher band of 5 per cent projection has been brought down to 6.5 per cent,” said Srivastava.

The industry total wholesales for October stood at 3.91 lakh units against last year’s number of 3.36 lakh, a growth of 16.3 per centre.

In the period April to October, the total wholesales is 24.65 lakh units against 22.73 lakh units a year ago, a growth of 8.4 per cent.

The October 2023 wholesale is the highest ever in the Indian passenger vehicle industry in any year in any month.

The retail figures for the industry were 3.88 lakh vehicles in October against 3.67 lakhs a year ago, a growth of 5.8 per cent.