The Indian aviation sector is likely to suffer losses of $3-3.6 billion in the June quarter with airlines taking the bulk of the hit because of the curbs on air travel, aviation consultancy Capa India said.

Domestic traffic is expected to decline from an estimated 140 million in 2019-20 to around 80-90 million in 2020-21, while international traffic is expected to fall from approximately 70 million in 2019-20 to 35-40 million in 2020-21, Capa India said in the report titled “Covid-19 & the state of the Indian aviation industry”.

Capa India estimates that Indian airlines will have 200-250 surplus aircraft during the next 6-12 months because of a decline in travel. “Indian carriers will require a domestic fleet of around 300-325 aircraft from October-2020 onwards, and an international fleet of 100-125 aircraft,” the report said.

“The total fleet size of 400-450 aircraft would still mean that the current fleet of 650 represents a surplus of 200-250 aircraft for a period of 6-12 months,” it said, adding that the projections assume that travel restrictions will be mostly lifted by the end of the first quarter.