The core infrastructure sector contracted for the eight straight month —with output falling 2.5 per cent in October —because of a slump in the production of crude oil, natural gas, refinery products and steel.

Production in the eight core sectors had contracted 5.5 per cent in October 2019, the commerce and industry ministry said. During April to October 2020-21, the core sector contracted by 13 per cent.

“Industrial recovery is still weak and the traction seen in IIP growth lately is triggered largely by the festival demand,” said Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist, India Ratings and Research.

The core sector has a weight of 40.27 per cent in the industry index.

“The non-core portion of the IIP may perform better than the core sectors in October 2020, led by the building up of stocks ahead of the festive season. Based on this, we expect the IIP to record a growth of 4-7 per cent in October 2020.

“Growth in many sectors may moderate in November 2020,” said Aditi Nayar, principal economist of Icra.

“The combined index of eight core industries stood at 124.2 in October 2020, which declined by 2.5 (provisional) per cent compared with the index of October 2019,” the ministry said.

Its cumulative growth during April to October, 2020-21, has been (-13 per cent

Barring coal, electricity and cement, all sectors -- crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser and steel-- recorded negative growth in September 2020.

The output of crude oil, natural gas, refinery products and steel fell by 6.2 per cent, 8.6 per cent, 17 per cent and 2.7 per cent, respectively.

In contrast, the coal production grew by 11.6 per cent during the month under review compared to the same period last year. The output of fertilizers, cement and electricity grew by 6.3 per cent, 2.8 per cent and 10.5 per cent, respectively, compared to October 2019.