When countries around the world have stumbled in the face of pandemic headwinds, China has often stood apart, seemingly impervious to financial pressures that undermined growth.
But now, dragged down by its commitment to curbing the spread of Covid-19 with widespread lockdowns and mass quarantines, China has suffered one of its worst quarters in years, threatening a global economy heavily dependent on Chinese factories and consumers.
The downturn could put added pressure on the country’s ruling Communist Party at a sensitive moment. China is scheduled to hold its party congress this year. A thriving economy and growing wealth were part of the bargain that Chinese citizens accepted in exchange for living under authoritarian rule.
But the lockdowns, a staple of Beijing’s zero-Covid policy, have heightened the risk of instability — both socially and economically.
The National Bureau of Statistics in China said on Friday that the economy expanded 0.4 per cent from a year earlier in the second quarter, worse than some economists’ expectations.
It was the lowest growth rate since the first three months of 2020, when the country effectively shut down to fight the early stages of the pandemic, and its economy shrank for the first time in 28 years.
The Chinese economy recovered almost immediately in 2020, but the current outlook is not so promising. Unemployment is close to the highest levels on record.
The housing market is still a mess, and small businesses are bearing the brunt of weakness in consumer spending.
“China is the shoe that has never dropped in the global economy,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard University and a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund.
“China is no position to be the global engine of growth right now, and the long-term fundamentals point to much slower growth in the next decade.”
This is an unwanted complication in a year when China is trying to project unwavering strength and stability.
At the party congress, Xi Jinping, the country’s leader, is expected to coast to another five-year term, further cementing his grip on power.