The central government is expected to announce the names of three new external members of the monetary policy committee (MPC), with its next meeting just a month away and amid a buzz the RBI will revise its policy stance, which will be the first step to cut rates.
The six-member MPC of the Reserve Bank of India is scheduled to meet from October 7 October 9 to decide on interest rates after holding them pat for nine rounds. The expectation is the MPC will revise it stance to neutral from withdrawal of accommodation. However, the Centre will have to appoint the three members before the meeting.
The four-year term of Jayanth Varma, Ashima Goyal and Shashanka Bhide will end on October 4, and if the new members are not appointed before October 7, the meeting will have to be rescheduled. The other three members are from the RBI.
“New members obviously have to be appointed only then can we hold the meeting. It should happen. We expect the new members to be in place on time,” RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said recently.
In the past couple of meetings, Goyal has joined ranks with Varma to seek a change in the RBI’s stance to neutral and cut the policy repo rate by 25 basis points.
Despite the governor and other committee members maintaining their tough stance on inflation, particularly with regard to food prices, some experts believe that a recent comment made by Das at a bankers’ meeting may indicate a possible shift in their position
``The balance between inflation and growth is well-poised,’’ Das said at the event. And the published version of the speech highlighted this comment in bold.
A section in the bond markets feel this is relatively a dovish comment and could signal a change in stance which could happen in December if not in October.
However, others caution against over-interpreting Das’s comment, noting the RBI governor has consistently emphasised the need for vigilance in monitoring inflationary forces.