The recovery for the automobile market from the second wave of the coronavirus will take more time compared to last year's first wave as this time the pandemic has not only disrupted the urban markets but also the rural ones, according to the Federation of Automobile Dealers Association (Fada).

In the first wave last year, rural India remained by and large unaffected to lead the recovery in the auto sector which bounced back in the second half of the last fiscal.

The only ray of hope this time is the timely arrival of the monsoon. It is likely to enter India through the southern coast around June 1.

The country’s weather office has said India is expected to get average rains, raising expectations of a higher farm output, which is central to the country’s economy. This will lead to the faster recovery of the rural markets led by categories such as tractors and two-wheelers that will have a rub-off effect on the entire economy

The auto dealers body expects to see recovery from the lows of the last fiscal but expects sales to reach the levels of 2018-19 only by the next fiscal.

“India is facing one of its toughest times with the second wave of Covid creating a havoc in everyone’s life. This time, the spread is not only limited to urban markets but has also taken rural India in its grasp,” according to Fada president Vinkesh Gulati.

Auto registrations in April crashed 28 per cent compared with the previous month as most of the Indian states started going under lockdown, partial as well as full, from April 5.

Maharashtra was the first state to declare a lockdown followed by Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Rajasthan and the others, with Bengal declaring one from Sunday till the end of the month.

Sales of most categories of vehicles fell in April compared with March: two-wheeler sales were down 28 per cent, three-wheelers by 43 per cent, passenger vehicles 25 per cent, tractors 45 per cent and commercial vehicles 24 per cent.

Sales in the first nine days of May have been extremely lean because of the lockdowns with dealers which closed down their outlets reporting zero sales. Even where, dealerships are open, the walk-ins have dropped 30 per cent and customers delaying their purchases.

Considering the rising number of cases, one can expect the peak in terms of infections for India as a whole at least a fortnight away. The just concluded elections in states such as Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam, movement of migrant workers back to states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar can keep the curve rising.

Overall, Fada expects sluggish sales this month. Inventories at the end of April for passenger vehicles ranged from 15 to 17 days and for two-wheelers, 30-35 days.