After tomato, onion prices are set to spike during the August-September festive season. Analysts expect the prices to shoot up to Rs 70 per kg from Rs 30 per kg because of a lower sowing area during the rabi season.

The price of the tuber crop is seen as a barometer of the poor man’s affordability, which could have implications for the coming assembly polls in crucial states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh later this year.

Onion not only adds flavour to many dishes but has also brought down governments in the past, which is all the more reason for the Centre to worry.

“The supply-demand imbalance is expected to reflect in onion prices towards end-August. As per our ground interactions, prices are expected to show a significant increase from early September in the retail market, reaching up to Rs 60-70 per kg during the lean patch,” according to a report by Crisil Market Intelligence and Analytics.

There are three onion-growing seasons in India: kharif, late kharif and rabi.

Rabi contributes the lion’s share of 70 per cent to the total onion produce and feeds the population from March through September, while the kharif produce comes to the rescue during the lean patch from the end of September to December.

The report said owing to the reduced shelf life of rabi onion by 1-2 months and panic selling in February-March, rabi stocks in the open market are expected to decline significantly by the end of August instead of September, extending the lean season by 15-20 days, which is likely to expose the market to tightened supplies and high prices.

Supplies will ease once kharif arrivals start in October, the report said.

A fall in prices in January to May offered some relief to consumers facing significantly costlier cereals, pulses and other vegetables. However, this created a negative sowing sentiment among the farmers for the kharif season.

For a country that is the second largest producer of onion, the tear-jerker vegetable has repeatedly proved to be a political bombshell. Indira Gandhi had harped on rising onion prices when she returned to power in January 1980. And a similar situation felled the BJP government in Delhi in 1998.