After attracting little notice for years, Abu Mohammed al-Golani spearheaded a stunning lightning offensive that led to the fall of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria after over 13 years of brutal civil war.
Golani, 42, is the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group once linked to al Qaida that has controlled most of Idlib Province, in northwestern Syria, for years during a long stalemate in the conflict.
“By far, he’s the most important player on the ground in Syria,” said Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst of jihad and modern conflict at the International Crisis Group, who has met Golani several times in the past five years.
In late November, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham launched the most significant challenge to Assad’s rule in a decade, sweeping through Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, before charging south, capturing territory across several provinces without facing much resistance.
By Sunday, rebels were celebrating in Syria’s capital, Damascus, and declared it free of Assad. Syria’s longtime leader had left the country after holding talks with “several parties of the armed conflict”, according to Russia’s foreign ministry.
Born Ahmed Hussein al-Shara in Saudi Arabia, al-Golani is the child of Syrian exiles, according to Arab media reports. In the late 1980s, his family moved back to Syria, and in 2003, he went to neighbouring Iraq to join al Qaida and fight the US occupation.
He spent several years in a US prison in Iraq, according to the Arab media reports and US officials.
He later emerged in Syria around the start of the civil war and formed the Nusra Front, an al Qaida affiliate, which eventually evolved into Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. At some point, he took on the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Golani.
Since breaking ties with al Qaida, Golani and his group have tried to gain international legitimacy by eschewing global jihadist ambitions and focusing on organised governance in Syria.
In recent years, Golani and his group have built an administration in the territory they govern, collecting taxes, providing limited public services, and even issuing identity cards to residents, according to a UN report. They have also come under criticism from inside and outside the country for using authoritarian tactics and cracking down on dissent.
Questions have emerged about what kind of government Golani would support and whether Syrians would accept it. In Idlib, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has espoused a government guided by a conservative and at times hard-line Sunni Islamist ideology.
Since the rebel offensive began, Golani has sought to reassure minority communities from other sects and religions. Some analysts said he now faces the test of his life: whether he can unite Syrians.
Drevon likened the situation facing Golani to those of other leaders who have taken on greater prominence during war, like President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.
“In a way, this is his Zelensky moment,” Drevon said. “Zelensky was criticised before the war in Ukraine and then he became a statesman. The question is can Golani make the same transformation.”
Possible rifts ahead
The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and Syrian National Army have been allies at times and rivals at times, and their aims might diverge.
The Turkish-backed militias also have an interest in creating a buffer zone near the Turkish border to keep away Kurdish militants at odds with Ankara. Turkey has been a main backer of the fighters seeking to overthrow Assad but more recently has urged reconciliation, and Turkish officials have strongly rejected claims of any involvement in the current offensive.
Whether the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army will work together if they succeed in overthrowing Assad or turn on each other again is a major question.
What’s next?
A commander with the insurgents, Hassan Abdul-Ghani, posted on the Telegram messaging app that opposition forces have started carrying out the “final stage” of their offensive by encircling Damascus.
And Syrian troops on Saturday withdrew from much of the central city of Homs, Syria’s third largest, according to a pro-government outlet and the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. If that city is captured, the link would be cut between Damascus, Assad’s seat of power, and the coastal region where he enjoys wide support.
US won’t budge
The US will maintain its presence in eastern Syria and will take measures necessary to prevent a resurgence of Islamic State, deputy assistant secretary of defence for West Asia, Daniel Shapiro, said on Sunday.
Speaking hours after Syrian rebels announced they had toppled Bashar al-Assad’s government, Shapiro called on all parties to protect civilians, particularly minorities, and to respect international norms.
“We are aware that the chaotic and dynamic circumstances on the ground in Syria could give ISIS space to find the ability to become active, to plan external operations, and we’re determined to work with those partners to continue to degrade their capabilities,” he told the Manama Dialogue security conference in Bahrain’s capital.
“(We’re determined) to ensure (Islamic State’s) enduring defeat, to ensure the secure detention of ISIS fighters and the repatriation of displaced persons,” Shapiro added.
Western governments, which have shunned the Assad-led state for years, must decide how to deal with a new administration in which Hayat Tahrir al-Sham looks set to have influence. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is a globally designated terrorist group.
Aides to President Biden have made clear in recent days that the US has no intention of intervening to affect the war’s outcome, either in support of the rebels or Assad.
That message was echoed on Saturday by President-elect Donald J. Trump, who wrote in a post on his social media platform, Truth Social: “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, and the US should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved!”