Over four years after its passage in the Lok Sabha and a presidential nod, the controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Act has been notified before the general election. The CAA expedites the process of granting Indian citizenship to all refugees from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan except for Muslims. The Bharatiya Janata Party may want to attribute the delay in notification to factors other than electoral compulsions. The CAA had been met with vociferous protests in large parts of the country; then, the Covid pandemic caused further delays. But timing is of essence in politics. There can be no denying the fact that the unsheathing of the CAA sword has been done with an eye on the approaching polls. Narendra Modi and his party believe that the legislation would help consolidate the Hindu vote — the BJP’s core constituency — especially in Assam and Bengal. For instance, Bengal’s Matua community, refugees from erstwhile East Pakistan, is likely to be receptive to it. The discourse on the CAA, the BJP is hoping, would also deflect attention from its policy failures as well as cement Mr Modi’s image as a leader who delivers on pledges.
Yet, the political dividends that the CAA is expected to accrue for the BJP come with attendant challenges. In Bengal, the state that the BJP has been eyeing for a while, the contentious nature of the legislation is likely to result in a counter-consolidation among not only the minority constituency but also progressive Hindu voters whose numerical presence is not insignificant. That could upset the BJP’s poll arithmetic in the state. Assam is already on the boil, with the 16-party United Opposition Forum calling for a strike. A sizeable segment of Assamese society believes that the CAA is inimical to its identity and culture. Moreover, in the public perception, the CAA is often associated with the National Register for Citizens, another divisive initiative that has the BJP’s seal, whose consequences were disastrous for Assam’s common people: 19 lakh people, the majority of them Hindus, found themselves excluded from the NRC. There are legal hurdles too confronting the CAA, with several petitions being filed in the apex court. Irrespective of the political outcome, the CAA’s unveiling augments the BJP’s dubious credentials as a party that profits from polarisation.