The uncertainty over the delayed national census raises doubts and apprehensions. Work on Census 2021 is still not on, even though Covid-19 is behind us and the elections of 2024 are long over. Is this a sign that the census exercise will go the same way as the erstwhile Planning Commission — that is, get renamed and have its objective changed? It would be unfortunate if that is the case. The census is a comprehensive statistical study of the economy and the society, and generates a large volume of reliable data. These data are vital for a number of reasons. They are a necessary basis for public policy formulation, helping in the identification of problems, estimating the extent of policy intervention required, and designing the policies to be implemented. Any delay in the gathering of data would thus mean that public policy is being designed on old and irrelevant data or, worse still, on the perceptions of politicians and their ideological compulsions.
This absence of data is also a constraint on the private sector’s ability to understand market changes in demand and supply, the nature of income growth and its distribution across income classes and geographical regions. Normally, a firm can create its own studies on microeconomic parameters like the income of its customers, changing tastes, new technologies that are relevant to its production, and potential competition from new entrants in the market. Details of some of these more granular microeconomic parameters are contained in census data. Individual firms hardly have the resources comparable to those of the government to generate economy-wide data. Hence, not having a census on time adversely affects the quality of the private sector’s decision-making capabilities. The theme of a current debate will suffice to illustrate this adverse effect. There is an assertion being made that one reason for the slowing down of economic growth in India is the result of a shrinking middle class. To what extent is this true? Hard data would be a useful tool for producers to know to what extent the markets are changing. As revealed by the events in the last few years, the Government of India seems to be shy when it comes to dealing with data, especially if the numbers are not to its liking. India must re-establish its image as a country which had, arguably, the most competent statistical survey apparatus in the world.