The Congress central leadership reacted in two different ways towards two belligerent allies in two far ends of the country, Bengal and Punjab.
The chief ministers from two different parties, Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamul Congress and Bhagwant Mann of the Aam Aadmi Party, made loud noises of going it alone in their respective states while remaining in the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) block.
However, the last may not have been heard yet from either of them.
The varied response to both the instances that happened in quick succession appeared to be the Congress’ strategy to push a different model for seat-sharing in each state.
“I have always said that in Bengal, we will fight alone. I am not concerned about what will be done in the country but we are a secular party and in Bengal, we will alone defeat BJP,” Mamata said on Wednesday.
Mamata was also unhappy at not being informed about Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra. Later in the evening Congress claimed party president Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul wrote separate letters to Mamata on January 13, informing her about the yatra. Whether the letters reached her Kalighat residence or the state secretariat Nabanna is not known.
Within hours of Mamata’s going alone diatribe, Mann used the A-word in a news briefing in Chandigarh.
“There are 13 seats in Punjab and we have shortlisted 40 probable candidates for these seats,” Mann said. “Woh unka aapas mein chal raha hoga (in Bengal), lekin Punjab mein hum alliance nahin karenge (They may have been holding talks but in Punjab we will not go for an alliance).”
Congress left Mann alone, but made attempts to placate Mamata.
“Trinamul is a pillar of the alliance, we cannot imagine the alliance without Mamata ji. Tomorrow our yatra is entering West Bengal. Discussions regarding seat sharing are being done and a result will come soon that will keep everyone satisfied,” said Jairam Ramesh, Congress general secretary in charge of communications.
While a decision on Bengal cannot happen without the nod of the Trinamul chief, Mann has been kept out of the negotiating table, though he is being kept informed of every move.
Both Mamata and Mann have been talking about going it alone over the past few weeks. In internal meetings with the leaders from West Midnapore, Murshidabad and Birbhum (the last one was held on Tuesday evening) Mamata has asked local leaders to prepare to fight the polls on their own strength (not that the Bengal Congress has much muscle). In the past weeks, Mann too has said the same thing on two separate occasions.
Mann’s assertion comes at a time when leaders of both the AAP and the Congress are in the midst of negotiating a seat-sharing deal for Delhi. In two meetings held in Delhi, the AAP had raised the issue of Gujarat, Goa and Haryana where it wants to contest with the alliance. Punjab remains the thorn.
A section of the Punjab Congress leaders like state unit president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring or Partap Singh Bajwa are against any alliance with the AAP, with their eyes on the 2027 Assembly polls.
“In the two years since AAP came to power, the party’s credibility has taken a hit. Mahaul woh nahin raha (The situation is not the same). The Shiromani Akali Dal is in a disarray and the BJP is restricted to some urban pockets. The Congress does stand a chance to return to power in 2027. The Punjab leaders here feel any alliance with AAP for the Lok Sabha will come to bite them in the Assembly polls,” said a Chandigarh-based political observer.
Both the parties do agree in private that in Delhi the BJP cannot be stopped from making a seven-nil score line for the third time in a row unless both of them hold hands.
AAP leaders contend the Congress is wary of losing the political space in Punjab to the much younger outfit, which was born out of a movement against alleged corruption in the Congress-led UPA.
“In Delhi since 2013 they are nowhere. Neither in the Assembly nor Lok Sabha,” said an AAP leader. “They are afraid the same will happen in Punjab.”
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, in Punjab the Congress had won eight of the 13 Lok Sabha seats, while the AAP finished third with just one seat. In the intervening five years, AAP has formed the government in Punjab and emerged as the third largest party in Gujarat with 12.92 per cent vote share. The AAP presence made a difference in at least 50 Assembly seats in Gujarat, as the Congress bled profusely. Last May, the Congress lost the Lok Sabha seat of Jalandhar which was a party stronghold for 24 years to AAP.
Though no formal announcement has been made yet, there is a buzz that AAP has offered three of the seven seats in Delhi to the grand old party.
In Bengal, the local leaders are against any alliance with Mamata as the Trinamul has aggressively poached its elected representatives at all levels. The last being Bayron Biswas, who won a bypoll to the Sagardighi seat on a Congress ticket with Left support and then moved to the Trinamul.