The BJP on Tuesday stunned popular perception and pollsters by retaining power in Haryana for a record third consecutive term, somewhat salvaging the pride that had suffered a blow in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year and receiving a shot in the arm ahead of the Maharashtra and Jharkhand polls.
The Haryana victory was particularly spectacular as the BJP defeated a resurgent Congress in a direct contest, beating simmering anti-incumbency of two terms that had been accentuated by voter anger flowing from the protracted protests by farmers and wrestlers and misgivings among youth about Agnipath, the temporary recruitment scheme in the armed forces.
No incumbent in Haryana has returned for a third consecutive term and the BJP did so with its best-ever performance in the state, winning 48 of the 90 seats and improving its vote share by around 3 per cent. The Congress had to be content with 37 seats.
At the peak of the Modi wave in 2014, the BJP had come to power in Haryana for the first time with 47 seats, which got whittled down to 40 in 2019.
BJP leaders said their diligently implemented strategy of pitting communities against the dominant land-owning Jats had worked this time.
Chief minister and BJP candidate Nayab Singh Saini celebrates his victory with supporters in Ladwa, Haryana, on Tuesday. PTI
The defeat handed to an upbeat Congress has provided the much-needed boost to Brand Modi, bruised by the below-par Lok Sabha tally of 240, which was even lower than the majority mark. The Haryana outcome has once again underlined the BJP’s dominant status in national politics.
The performance in the first elections in Jammu and Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370 was also comforting for the BJP.
“Heartfelt gratitude to Haryana! I salute the people of Haryana for giving a clear majority to the BJP once again. This is the victory of the politics of development and good governance,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a post on X.
Home minister and the BJP’s principal strategist Amit Shah was prompt in celebrating the victory and attempting to steal a march on the Opposition, particularly the Congress. “First in the Lok Sabha polls and now in Haryana, the people have completely rejected the Congress, which made false and empty promises to get votes. The people are standing like a rock with the BJP, which is delivering on the ground,” Shah posted on X.
Shah took an indirect dig at Rahul Gandhi, who had led the Congress’s campaign in Haryana. “Haryana, the land of farmers and soldiers, has taught a lesson to those who go abroad and insult the country for their vote bank,” he said. The home minister equated Modi’s third term with the BJP’s victory in the state elections to claim that the party’s “politics of performance” had been endorsed by the people.
On Jammu and Kashmir, Shah expressed “heartfelt gratitude” to the people. “The people of Jammu and Kashmir have blessed the BJP with the highest percentage of votes in these Assembly elections and have given the BJP the highest number of seats in its history so far,” he posted, hailing the leadership of Modi.
In the internal dynamics of the wider Sangh Parivar, too, the win in Haryana will strengthen Modi’s status that had been scarred by the Lok Sabha poll results. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat had been publicly disapproving of the “ahankar” (arrogance) of the “sevak” amid clear indications that the ideological fountainhead was seeking to dominate the affairs of the BJP.
The victory in Haryana and the encouraging performance in Jammu and Kashmir have given a major impetus to the BJP ahead of the elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, expected to be held next month. The BJP is believed to be battling simmering anti-incumbency in Maharashtra where it rules indirectly and the Haryana verdict could boost its morale in effecting a turnaround.
Apart from heartland Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Haryana were the two states where the BJP had suffered blows in the Lok Sabha polls. In Maharashtra, the BJP could win just 9 of the 48 seats while its allies ShivSena and NCP picked up 7 and 1, respectively.
In Haryana, the BJP appears to have snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, taking by surprise senior leaders who had given up on the state and hoped that only a sharp Jat-versus-non-Jat polarisation, the principal faultline in Haryana, could change the party’s fortune.
The BJP had been demoralised since it could win just 5 of the 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state. In an atmosphere of gloom, the BJP focused on micro-management. Incumbent two-term chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar was replaced with an OBC, Nayab Singh Saini, months ahead of the polls.
The move helped the party counter the voter anger to some extent, BJP leaders said. Then, the focus turned towards polarising the OBCs, Dalits and other communities against the dominant Jats, who were aggressively backing the Congress. The BJP promoted a number of Independent Jat candidates to split the Congress votes and it seemed to have worked to an extent, BJP insiders said.
“In the final round, the Jat-versus-non-Jat polarisation worked on the ground,” a BJP MP from the state said.