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Live: Counting begins for Bengal's 42 Lok Sabha seats; will BJP win more than Trinamul?

Three of the top exit polls have predicted Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party would be the biggest winner. But Mamata Banerjee has in the past proved pollsters wrong

Graphics: TT Online

Our Bureau
Published 04.06.24, 08:14 AM

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The results of the elections for the 42 Lok Sabha seats in Bengal will decide the course of the state's politics. The state Assembly elections are due in two years, but if chief minister Mamata Banerjee's Trinamul loses ground to the BJP that clock could tick a whole lot faster.

Three of the top exit polls aired on Saturday after the end of the seventh and final phase of polling predicted the BJP would win the most number of constituencies in the state – between 23 and 31, depending on the poll.

The India Today, My Axis exit poll predicted 26-31 seats for the BJP, and 11-14 for the ruling Trinamul. The Left-Congress combine, according to that poll, could get 0-2 seats.

The News 24, Today’s Chanakya poll predicted 24 seats for the BJP, 17 for the Trinamul and one for the Left-Congress alliance. The ABP, C Voter poll also indicated that the BJP was poised to win 23-27 seats, and the Trinamul 13-17 while the Left-Congress combine could win one to three seats.

Exit polls have in the recent past been proved wrong in Bengal, but if the pollsters got it right, it will spell trouble for the Mamata Banerjee government.

Buoyed by the relentless campaign of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Bengal BJP leaders have made it clear they would press for early Assembly elections if their party wins most of the Lok Sabha seats in Bengal.

A poor showing by the Trinamul would also encourage a section within the party to call for a leadership change with the party’s general secretary Abhishek Banerjee possibly stepping up.

An exodus of elected representatives to the BJP from the Trinamul cannot be ruled out if the saffron party wins more than the 18 seats it won from Bengal in the last Lok Sabha election.

Such an exodus happened after the 2019 Lok Sabha election till the 2021 Assembly polls. The trend reversed after Mamata and the Trinamul clawed back in the Assembly elections, riding on its welfare schemes.

Tuesday’s results will prove whether Mamata’s strategy of showering doles on all sections of the society carries electoral dividend.

In any case Bengal’s politics is in for another churning, like it was 15 years ago when Trinamul had emerged ahead of the then ruling Left Front.

Congress, BJP, Left complain to EC

Ahead of the counting, all the three Opposition parties in Bengal, the BJP, the Left and the Congress appealed to the Election Commission to ensure there were no manipulations in the counting process.

A BJP delegation met the state chief electoral officer, Aariz Aftab, and submitted a deputation.

“We are getting news from some constituencies that in complete disregard of the guideline there has been large-scale empanelment of such non-permanent casual employees,” the BJP said in its letter to the CEO.

The CPM delegation led by state secretary Mohammad Salim too raised concerns over fake counting agents.

“During the elections we caught fake polling agents in many booths," Salim said. "Now, we have to be vigilant about fake counting agents. We have conveyed our apprehensions to the CEO."

Election Result Vote Counting Trinamul Congress (TMC) BJP CPM
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