India is poised to record an 8 per cent rise in metallurgical coke imports in calendar year 2024 to 77 million tonnes (mt) as domestic steelmakers light up new capacities through the blast furnace route.
While Australia continues to be the largest supplier to India, Russia has managed to secure a greater share of the domestic market in the year which is drawing to a close on Tuesday.
Data available with market research firm BigMint showed coking coal imports are projected to rise around 7 per cent year-on-year to 59mt in CY24 and pulverised coal injection (PCI) coal imports are slated to increase to 18mt. Met coal includes both coking and PCI coal, used for injection into BF during iron making.
India relies mostly on imports (90 per cent of the total domestic requirement) for met coal as the country does not have good adequate resources. Among the large integrated steelmakers, only Tata Steel and public sector SAIL have captive coking coal mines, albeit they produce a small quantity compared with their own requirement.
India has produced about 136mt steel from January to November, up by 5.9 per cent from the same period of CY23, according to the World Steel Association, despite a 1.4 per cent contraction worldwide.
The trend is likely to continue both in December and on to CY25 as top steelmakers such as Tata Steel and JSW Steel are going to ramp up their expanded capacities that are being commissioned in phases.
BigMint predicted that the country’s hot metal production in CY25 is expected to go up 7 per cent, and the demand for coking coal is projected to increase roughly by 5 per cent, as many of the new capacities are coming by the BF route.
The firm believes imports of met coal may rise to around 84-85mt next calendar year, which includes both coking coal and PCI. Imports are likely to rise by 9-10 per cent y-o-y.
The jury is still out on whether Russia will continue its stellar run in supplying this crucial raw material for ironmaking in 2025 too as Indian importers preferred cheaper Russian PCI at a CFR basis.
Australia’s market share fell from 49 per cent in 2023 to 44 per cent of India’s imports in the first eight months of 2024, while Russia, the US and Mozambique gained market share by 1-2 per cent over the same period.
Russian PCI coal volumes increased 22 per cent during the same period (January-August’24) and represented 51 per cent of Indian PCI imports. Australian PCI exports to India fell 2 per cent over the same period, according to government data.